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However, similar situations have also occurred in other major coal-producing areas in the country. Some analysts even said that the inflection point of coal market prices has emerged.
Coal prices fell in coal-producing areas Since July, coal production and shipments have accounted for 1/4 and 1/3 of the country's Shanxi Province respectively, and coal sales prices have declined for the first time since 2000. At present, the price of coal in Linfen City, the main coal producing area, is 410 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal is 645 yuan/ton, and the tax price of high-sulfur coal is 440 yuan/ton, which has a greater degree than at the beginning of July. decline. Taking the main coking coal as an example, the tax price in June was 715 yuan/ton, and it dropped to 700 yuan/ton in July. In late August, it decreased by more than 50 yuan/ton from July. According to the data provided by Shanxi Coal Sales Corporation, based on the average selling price of 8 state-owned key coal mines in the first half of the province of RMB 290.4/ton, the sales price of coal in Taiyuan City is currently down by about 10%, Changzhi City and Jincheng. The drop in the city is about 20%.
The decline in coal prices is not only in Shanxi Province. In July, Shenhua Group reduced its coal trading price in Qinhuangdao Port, Yanzhou Coal Mining Group lowered its blended coal price by RMB 30/t, and Datun Coal & Power Company reduced screening blended coal by RMB 20/t; in August, many countries in eastern China were state-owned The large coal mines have also lowered their market transaction coal prices. Since mid-July, coal mining prices in major coal-producing areas such as Henan, Shandong, and Anhui have begun to decline, with an average of 30-50 yuan per ton. In addition, the transaction price of Qinhuangdao Port, a coal distribution center, has also been lowered by about RMB 30/t. According to relevant sources from the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, since June, the coal market has gradually become weak, the area of ​​price cuts has gradually expanded, and it has been extended to the main coal producing areas. The reduced price coal varieties have continued to expand, and in July, the coke, The price of refined coal and high-quality thermal coal has also been lowered; the main part of price reduction is no longer limited to local coal mines, and it has already reached major coal mines in July.
Supply and demand determine prices The industry pointed out that although the price of coal has risen and fell, it is somewhat unexpected. However, in view of the recent increase in coal production, expansion of transport capacity and slowing demand, the decline in coal prices is also inevitable.
According to the data released by the Shanxi Provincial Economic Committee, from January to July, Shanxi Province produced a total of 233 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. According to figures from the China Coal Industry Association, the national coal production from January to July this year was 1.119 billion tons, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year. In addition, the increase in imported coal and the reduction in export coal also led to an increase in the supply of coal by more than 14 million tons. In addition, the state has successively introduced measures to further increase the domestic supply of coal by reducing the import tariffs on thermal coal and tax rebates for coal exports. At the same time, because coal mines and individual coal mines in various counties and townships, especially coal produced by indiscriminate mining, have no statistics at all, the increase in output is far greater than the statistics.
As production increased, coal shipments also increased. From January to July, the coal traffic volume of Shanxi Railway reached 207 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%. The large amount of coal shipped from Shanxi Province will inevitably increase the deposits of coal in Qinhuangdao and Tianjin ports. By the end of July and early August, Qinhuangdao port had stored more than 4 million tons of coal, reaching 4.2 million tons at the highest level, which greatly exceeded the theoretical retention of 2.5 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons year-on-year.
However, coal demand is slowing down. After May, affected by the macro-control, there was a significant surplus of steel production capacity, and the production of coke in Shanxi Province was limited to 20% to 40%. In addition, due to the heavy rainfall this year, the hydropower generation in the southern provinces has increased, and the demand for thermal coal has also been decreasing. At present, the coal stocks in Shandong Province are full, and individual power plant inventories even reach 40 days. It is difficult to digest large amounts of coal in the short term.
Whether or not coal prices will continue to decline The decline in coal prices has changed the situation between the supply and demand sides, which has previously been restrained by the demand-side demanding parties. According to media reports, Maanshan Iron and Steel Group took the lead in requesting price cuts from major coal-producing companies. The coal mine responded and decided to reduce the price of 1/3 coking coal by 45 yuan from August 1. Subsequently, Chonggang, Anshan Iron and Steel, and Ben Steel followed suit. Even Chongqing's cement companies are planning to join hands to push key coal companies to cut coal prices. It is understood that several major coal enterprises in Shanxi Province have received letters from users outside the province asking for lower coal contract prices.
Since the coal market in China has the inertia of buying, not buying and falling, after the decline in coal prices, the speculative coal groups active in Shanxi coal market have sold off for several years, and even coal from other provinces has flooded into Shanxi, further aggravating the decline in coal prices. Potential.
The decline in price is undoubtedly a great benefit to the downstream users of coal. Therefore, the head of raw material procurement of a fertilizer company in Shanxi Province “was a lot easierâ€. He also said that companies are waiting for a further drop in coal prices and are now eager to purchase coal in large quantities. Downstream users who hold this attitude are not few. However, analysts believe that the current rise in international oil prices may cause energy consumers to shift from oil to coal. In addition, the country will further increase the management of coal mines, especially small and medium-sized coal mines, and coal production capacity may be reduced, so coal prices It is unlikely that there will be a big drop. According to an announcement issued by the Shanxi Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau on August 22, Shanxi has a total of 1,929 coal mines (wells) that have not obtained a safety production license and will stop production for rectification. Some experts believe that there are only more than 700 state-owned ore mines in more than 4,000 coal mines in Shanxi Province. The degree of industrial concentration is not enough to seriously affect prices. If the capacity can be compressed by 30%, coal prices may rise back.
The perspective of the birth and economy: the coal price is extremely high and the relationship between supply and demand is reversed
Coal supply and demand in Shanxi are being reversed. Before June of this year, Shanxi's coal production was limited, there was a severe shortage of scarce coal, and the price of coal went all the way to a record high. The main coking coal was not even available for more than 700 yuan per ton in Shanxi Province, and most of the coke enterprises had coal Abandoned and limited production. From late June, coal prices began to show signs of declining. The economic operation analysis report released by the Shanxi Provincial Economic Committee in mid-July pointed out: “From the analysis of the trend of continued decline in coking coal prices, coal prices are expected to continue to fall back in the second half of the year.â€