Jia Xinguang: An Analysis of the Focus of the Auto Industry in the "Two Conferences" in 2012

In 2011, China’s automobile market came to an “emergency brake”, with sales growth of 2.5% for the whole year, and the era of high growth in China’s auto market, which declared an average of 25% for 10 years in a row, no longer existed. Chinese cars began to enter new markets. A round of adjustment period. Foreign and domestic investment, joint ventures and sole proprietorship, markets and technologies, scale and content, development realities and thinking patterns... These hidden or hidden issues are deeply hidden in the development of the automotive industry and cannot be eliminated and urgently need to be clarified. After the “trend” in the market’s surge, the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese auto industry is imperative.

Also in 2011, China’s car ownership exceeded the 100 million mark for the first time, second only to the United States, ranking second in the world. In 2000, there were only 6.25 million vehicles in China, a 16-fold increase in just over ten years. The automobile society has come too fast and people are caught off guard. In addition to congestion, parking, noise, exhaust pollution, and traffic safety hazards have become social issues that cannot be ignored. The increase in the number of possessions is inversely proportional to the degree of livability in cities. Achievements and Prosperity Difficult to Cover the Future of China's Automotive Industry by Deteriorating Car Environment. "Car social disease" remains to be solved.

2012 will not be the end of the world, but China's auto industry needs to find its own "Noah's Ark."

Every year at two sessions, there will be hot topics in the automotive industry. On the other hand, before the two sessions were held, some topics actually started to warm up, paving the way for discussions in the two sessions. Therefore, we can speculate on the hot topics of the automotive industry from the two topics that are currently being discussed.

First, the new official car procurement standards

On February 24, 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China issued the “2012 Catalogue of Vehicles for Selection of Official Vehicles for Party and Government Organs” (Consultation Draft) (hereinafter referred to as the “opinion draft”), which was publicly solicited from all sectors of society. In the catalog of the new official car procurement model, all of them are self-owned brand models. Foreign-owned and joint-venture brand models have basically not been purchased by official party and government agencies in 2012.

Some media believe that "own brands have been given good opportunities for development." A number of self-owned brand companies have been "encouraged" by the new policy. For example, Jianghuai Automobile senior executives stated that “despite the fact that actual income is difficult to judge, we see the government’s favorable policies.” Jiang Jun, Deputy General Manager of SAIC Passenger Vehicles, believes that the draft is issued, which shows the current R&D of independent brands. The capabilities, manufacturing capabilities, quality control capabilities, and service capabilities have all been recognized by the relevant national authorities. “The government's recognition of self-owned brands will bring more development opportunities to self-owned brands.” Some experts believe that the selection of government official vehicles has a strong model role for the general public and that the publicity of the catalogue not only helps to improve Consumers’ trust in their own brands will inevitably lead to the prosperity of the business car and private car market, and will promote independent brands to increase their reputation and market influence.

However, industry analysts reported relatively quietly on the opinion draft and considered that the draft opinion was not sufficiently detailed. In addition, whether the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology can restrict the procurement of local governments remains to be seen.

Some experts also said that the introduction of the draft at the moment was more accidental, and the lineup of its own brand was even more unexpected.

Some officials said: “The market share of self-owned brand cars is still weak compared with foreign investment and joint ventures. Initially foreign capital and joint ventures were in the mid- to high-end market, and self-owned brands were in the low-end market. Wells don’t commit crimes, but now they are short-sighted. Therefore, it is necessary to solve the problem of weak competitiveness of independent brands.” The government is aiming at promoting and resolving the competitiveness of independent brand car companies through the procurement of official vehicles. The official New Deal stipulates that "in the last two years, corporate research and development expenditures have been no less than 3% of the main business income." Joint ventures have a hard time passing this level.

After the new Chinese version of the bus catalog locked its own-brand models, the European Chamber of Commerce expressed that in response, the Chinese car companies’ plans to enter Europe may face obstacles.

It is estimated that the representatives of the two associations will appear in a positive manner. Although many representatives will speak, the overwhelming majority will affirm the new government agencies' official vehicle management methods and affirm that official vehicles use their own brands, including singing for their own brand cars. Official car reform is indeed the focus of attention of the two parties. Experts hurriedly throwing out the official car procurement catalog before the two sessions considered that it was nothing more than a fig leaf of official car corruption.

The official car reform that we hope should be to reduce the scale of procurement of official vehicles, limit the scope of special vehicles, eliminate the private use of buses and the waste of buses, and gradually realize the lease-based and socialization of official vehicles. On the other hand, the international leading role of official vehicles in standardizing automobile consumption is mainly due to the improvement of safety, environmental protection, and energy-saving regulations.

Second, school bus safety issues

On February 15, 2012, at the "2012 First China School Bus Development Seminar and International School Bus Exhibition", Zhou Hongyu, deputy director of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of Hubei Province and a renowned scholar, said that there are three aspects that require special attention and improvement.

First of all, the legal principles and guiding ideology of school buses need to be clarified. In this regard, Zhou Hongyu proposed the "people-oriented, children's priorities, overall consideration, and concerted efforts," the school bus problem solving guidelines.

Second, the school bus concept needs to be clearly defined. The practice of distinguishing school buses by the number of seats in the existing provisions is unclear. Zhou Hongyu proposed that the definition of school bus needs to include several factors, such as "design according to national standards", "professional qualifications of automobile manufacturers", "drive by professional drivers", "responsible for student transfers to school", special vehicles, etc. Zhou Hongyu thinks that the relevant departments can give school cars a transitional period, but relaxing the school bus standards does not mean that school buses should not be given a clear and strict definition.

Zhou Hongyu also believes that school bus production should be encouraged. This encouragement is all-round support, including financial, taxation, land, and financial benefits, rather than pure tax incentives. For example, the education institution that purchases school buses should consider reducing the purchase tax. The private institutions that purchase school buses should also be supported financially and financially. Students who ride a school bus can be given financial aid.

Dong Yang, head of the Automobile Association, believes that the three issues related to school buses are worth considering: First, does the realization of safety rely solely on the realization of the car? Second, should we not consider cost while pursuing "safety"? Third, should we consider more use of existing bus resources?

It is the undeveloped areas where the primary and secondary school students have turned their cars. They are children of poor families. In fact, it is not the most difficult for children who are “in violation of the school bus” to sit.

The problem of overloading and other vehicles colliding with the school bus is actually a management issue. It is a matter of society’s safety and legal awareness. If you only pay attention to whether school buses have high safety standards, they cannot solve these problems.

What should the government grasp? Before formulating a safety-oriented school bus safety standard, at least we should pay attention to issues such as education investment, traffic safety, education resource planning, and citizens' awareness of legal compliance.

Third, the development of new energy vehicles

On February 22, 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formally announced the “12th Five-year Development Plan for New Materials Industry”. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 500,000 by 2015, and 15 billion yuan of energy-based power battery modules will be required. Watt hour/year.

According to the incomplete statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, although the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles for domestic vehicle manufacturers has increased significantly in 2011, the total volume is still relatively small. According to incomplete statistics, last year's annual production and sales were 8,368 vehicles and 8,159 vehicles, respectively, and they did not exceed 10,000.

By the end of 2011, the demonstration cities actually operated about 15,000 new energy vehicles, which was not far behind the country’s overall target of 25,000 for demonstration and promotion.

Recently, the State Council issued the "Industrial Transformation and Upgrade Plan (2011-2015)". The requirements for the automobile industry in the plan are mainly energy conservation and emission reduction, and new ideas for the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles are proposed. There are several major changes in this area: The first is to “stick to energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles at the same time, further increase energy conservation, environmental protection and safety of traditional energy vehicles, and accelerate the development of new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.” In respect of energy conservation, the plan proposes to “accelerate the upgrading of traditional automobiles, significantly increase the technical level and performance of small-displacement engines, increase pollutant emission standards and reduce pollutant emissions,” and “emphasize the development of high-efficiency common rail technologies such as high-performance internal combustion engine technologies. , advanced transmissions and automotive electronic control technology development and application."

Secondly, the development path of new energy vehicles that is clearly defined by the plan is “accelerating the development of new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles... Keeping track of fuel cell vehicle technologies” and “supporting the development of ordinary hybrid vehicle technologies”. R & D". The focus of the development of new energy vehicles is to “break through the core technologies of power batteries, support motors and drive systems, as well as research and development and industrialization of electric air conditioners, electric steering, and electric brakes, and support the development of fuel cell stacks, fuel cell engines, and key materials. The core technology research and development supports the construction of a common technology platform for new energy vehicles."

Third, at the same time, it is proposed to "adjust local conditions and develop alternative fuel vehicles appropriately."

According to media statistics, in 2012, a total of nearly 80,000 vehicles were predicted to be launched under the promotion of administrative forces. The local subsidy standard has been raised to 120,000 yuan.

BYD said that the electric car produced by the plant could not be licensed in Beijing. This is understandable because the subsidy of the Beijing government will never flow to outsiders. The subtext behind this is that it will only subsidize locally produced electric vehicles. Therefore, behind the high local subsidies, local protection is still working.

However, at the two sessions, local government officials still highly stressed that they must vigorously develop new energy vehicles and expressed that they must give more subsidies to new energy vehicles, but they will never reveal the meaning of local protection.

Fourth, automobile recall and three bags

On January 16, 2012, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine promulgated the “Responsibility Regulations for the Repair, Replacement, and Return of Household Automobile Products (Second Consultation Draft)” and asked the public to solicit opinions again. Earlier, at the legislative hearing held by the AQSIQ, representatives from all parties reached an agreement on the draft of the draft. Many people think that this is a precursor to the introduction of the automobile Three Guarantees.

According to media reports, the State Council has made overall arrangements for the legislative work in 2012 and strived to complete 33 legislative projects during the year, including the management of defective automotive product recalls.

The discussion of these two documents is still very enthusiastic.

Observing the past two sessions, many deputies had buses or representatives of automobile manufacturers. Representatives who could appear as consumers of automobiles were extremely rare. Therefore, it is estimated that the discussion of these two documents will not be very enthusiastic. The relevant departments will Do some gestures before the meeting, but it is very difficult to form hot spots during the two sessions.

V. PM2.5 attracts attention

Recently, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over an executive meeting of the State Council and agreed to issue the newly revised "Ambient Air Quality Standards." The new standard added indicators for the monitoring of 8-hour concentration limits for fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). The meeting requested monitoring of fine particulate matter and ozone in key areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, as well as municipalities directly under the Central Government and provincial capitals. In 2013, monitoring was carried out in 113 major environmental protection cities and national environmental protection model cities. The year covers all cities above the prefecture level.

The meeting pointed out that we must focus on the prevention and control of motor vehicle pollution. Improve vehicle fuel quality and motor vehicle emission standards. By 2015, we will basically phase out the "yellow label cars" that were registered before 2005. Fifth, we must strengthen coordination and prevention. In the key regions such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta, joint prevention and control of air pollution will be implemented. Establish an early warning system for atmospheric pollution under extreme weather conditions.

Some media statistics have found that 11 provinces have put forward specific measures for the management of PM2.5, including Beijing, Shanghai strives to be the "first name," and plans to be the first to announce PM2.5 monitoring data nationwide in June this year. . Eight provinces, starting with the control of motor vehicle exhaust emissions, have been mentioned the most in various measures. In addition, the elimination of old cars, the strengthening of site dust management, and afforestation are also popular. In order to comprehensively manage PM2.5, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has announced a timetable for comprehensive monitoring of PM2.5.

According to another report, at present, China has already released PM2.5 monitoring data in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Wuxi, and another 14 cities have begun testing this data and plans to announce it to the public.

However, there are also reports that, despite the pressurization of PM2.5 monitoring data, the procurement of equipment for monitoring PM2.5 in major cities in the Chinese mainland has been suspended. Because the environmental protection departments of these cities are not clear, the monitoring equipment and standards that have been used for more than a decade cannot continue to be used.

All originated from the "shock balance method" - the PM2.5 and PM10 values ​​in most of China's first-tier cities were monitored by instrumentation of this technical method. However, the value of PM10 and PM2.5 monitored by monitoring equipment produced by Thermo Fisher Scientific in the United States is generally 15% lower than that measured by monitoring equipment used in the United States and the embassy.

Some local environmental monitoring station chiefs said: “Of course we know that the value measured by the shock balance method is low and it is low before we buy it.” The current reason why the environmental protection department is so sensitive is because it involves all levels of environmental protection agencies Blue sky number, qualified air quality, and accuracy of energy conservation and emission reduction data.

Some experts believe that: "PM2.5 is not the key, the core or how to solve the problem. At present, the industry is focused on the view that China solves this pollution problem at least 30 years."

Therefore, during the two sessions, locals will continue to maintain high-profile attention to PM2.5, showing its concern for environmental protection. Recently, it has been reported that Du Shaozhong, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau and spokesman for the press, formally retired as the deputy secretary and deputy director of the party group. Du Shaozhong said: "I'm not mistaken and I don't have the next time." In fact, he was the first to discover that the U.S. embassy's test equipment was different from that in Beijing. He first called out to look at U.S. instruments, but this may lead to more unpredictable consequences, so Beijing has to persuade Its class. He said: "The air quality is not good, this is not actually caused by the Environmental Protection Agency, but people do not hesitate to call you?" But during the two sessions will not call the environmental protection department, the car will certainly become a scapegoat.