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Supply-demand game to determine the market outlook In fact, the current domestic coal supply is not a full surplus, but only exists in some areas. Huang Teng, a coal trade expert, stated that there are many reasons for the coal pressure in Qinhuangdao Port. The decline in demand in the south and the completion of transportation tasks by the railway are the factors that have caused pressure on Hong Kong. The supply and demand situation will be the key to determining the trend of coal prices.
Guo Yun Securities analyst Gong Yunhua pointed out that the past few years, the upstream and downstream investment shows that the matching of coal production capacity is relatively strong, that is, the increase of coal is prepared for the growth of production capacity of the major downstream coal-consuming industries; but the intermediate links of transport investment Insufficiency restricts effective supply and supports the upstream climate to some extent.
Due to the limitation of transportation capacity and other factors, the coal supply and demand relationship in China has been in a state of tight balance for a long time, and the regional nature is very obvious. As coal supply and demand in the South have eased and coal stocks in ports have increased significantly, coal shortages still exist in some provinces and cities. Industry sources pointed out that the newly added power generation capacity of thermal power in the past three years has been mainly concentrated in the central region. At present, the capacity of coal in the central region is seriously insufficient. The person thinks that the bottleneck of China's original railway transport began to ease, but new bottlenecks began to appear. How to transport coal to the central region has become a new problem.
The Coal Marketing Association believes that the current domestic coal supply and demand are still basically balanced. However, the deceleration of the macro economy has led to a fall in the demand growth of downstream industries such as thermal power plants, steel and building materials, and pressure on the demand side of coal. Great Wall Securities analyst pointed out that the slowdown in the domestic downstream industry of thermal coal is more obvious, and the demand growth will not be optimistic in the near future. Especially in the thermal power industry, the demand off-season will greatly ease the previously tight coal supply and demand relationship.
On the supply side, due to the consolidation of small coal mines, the growth of coal production capacity has been controlled. Macquarie Securities Liu Xiaoning believes that since 2002, when China's coal demand has grown, it is the small coal mines that can really meet the growth demand. Although large-scale coal mines have also grown during the period, they are far less able to meet the rapid growth demand than small coal mines.
Since last year, the government has tightened its attitude toward shutting down small coal mines, and the contribution rate of small coal mines has declined. Wu Chenghou, an adviser to the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, said that in the past, China’s coal production statistics almost did not include the “extracorporeal circulation†of small coal mines. Now that small coal mines have been closed, their demand has not been reduced. This part of the demand has also entered the “internal circulationâ€. As a result, coal supply and demand are imbalanced.
In general, both sides of coal supply and demand face a certain degree of "reduction" pressure, and the trend of coal prices will ultimately be determined by comparing the two parts of "reduction."
The growth of corporate profits peaked. The performance of the coal market in the secondary market has reflected the decline of the industry's economy in advance. Several companies have failed to recover the high growth forecast of the three quarterly reports and failed to recover the sharp drop in stock prices because investors believe that the company’s profitability It may have seen a high point.
Although the first quarterly report of the coal industry won't be released until October 21st, many coal companies have already foreseen the "big bumper harvest" of the coal industry.
Due to the large increase in coal prices in the first half of this year, in the third quarter, coal prices fell, the first three quarters of coal companies profits still rose sharply compared with the same period last year. Panjiang Shares expects that cumulative net profit for January to September will increase by more than 650% over the same period of last year. In addition, five coal mining companies such as Xishan Coal & Gasification and coal gasification are forecasting an increase of over 200%; Pingdingshan Coal and Lanzhou Kechuang Such net profit is expected to increase by more than 100%.
Zhang Shun, an analyst at Bohai Securities, pointed out in his research report that since 2008, coal supply and demand have been in a tight situation, coal prices have risen sharply, and Qinhuangdao's thermal coal has risen by more than 80%. Benefiting from this, the gross margin and sales profit rate of the coal industry in 2008 have been steadily increasing, indicating an increase in profitability. Among them, gross profit margin was 30.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, and sales profit margin was at the best level in history. Judging from the interim report of listed companies, the average gross profit margin of major listed companies reached 35.04%, which was about 4 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year, and the net sales rate of sales also increased by about 4 points.
However, the recent decline in international energy prices, the weakening of domestic demand, the sharp correction of coking coal prices, thermal coal prices also continued to fall slightly. According to the coal market network information, as of October 13th, the price of Qinhuangdao coal fell by 10 yuan to 60 yuan per ton from a month ago, which was a drop of 120 yuan to 160 yuan per ton compared with the historic high in late July. Among them, the reduction in the amount of coal with lower calorific value is relatively large.
With the weakening of downstream demand, the decline in coal prices must be accompanied by a reduction in coal sales. Although the previous two countries' price-limiting policies released the risk of falling coal prices in advance, domestic coal prices fell far behind international coal prices and other commodity prices, but the macroeconomic decline has intensified and the coal industry is not likely to remain alone.
The macroeconomic prosperity is the basis for supporting the high prosperity of the coal industry. Coal consumption is greatly affected by macroeconomic adjustments. The coal industry, as an upstream basic energy industry, is also affected by the economic cycle. By comparing the growth rate of coal consumption from 1980 to 2007 and the growth rate of GDP, Zhang Shun believes that in the period of two macroeconomic adjustments around 1989 and 1998, the consumption of coal was significantly reduced, which in turn affected the performance of coal companies.
Some analysts believe that although coal prices have entered a downward cycle, it is expected that from the fourth quarter of this year to the Spring Festival next year, driven by the demand for coal in winter, the spot price of thermal coal can maintain a high level of volatility. After this, due to the sharp slowdown in coal demand, coal prices will enter a downward path.
Limited impact of winter coal storage Many industry analysts expressed their expectations for winter coal storage needs. Every year, the coal market will experience fluctuations in demand as the season changes. In the fourth quarter, as temperatures dropped, winter coal storage demand in parts of northern China increased, which is the traditional peak season for the coal industry.
Gong Yunhua believes that coal companies with pricing power will have the ability to ask for price during the peak period of winter coal storage in the fourth quarter. National Securities analyst Li Jing also said that the peak season of demand is coming and coal prices are expected to stabilize.
However, an electric power industry source disclosed that the national winter coal reserve index issued by the state is 32 million tons, but the current national social inventory has exceeded 37 million tons, which means that the winter storage coal does not need additional coal storage at all. A coal company official stated that the winter storage coal "has already had enough storage."
Experts in the industry said that although the demand for winter storage coal does not significantly promote the recovery of coal prices, it will help maintain current prices, or slow down the trend of price declines, and consume low-quality coal stocks. At present, the stocks of coal in Qinhuangdao Port are mostly 5,500 kcal/kg or less, and the high-quality thermal coal with high calorific value is still in short supply.
The inflection point of the coal market is gradually approaching
Starting from the turning point in international coal prices, the outlook for the coal industry in the secondary market is gradually turning into worries. Since September, the collapse of international coal prices has caused investors' confidence in the coal industry to collapse. From the second quarter, the off-season is not thin, the supply and demand are booming in the first three quarters, and the current weak demand and falling prices are confirming the advance response of the secondary market. The most defensive coal sector in the previous period has already fallen into a burden of dragging the broader market. The high growth forecast in the third quarter has not been able to restore its downward trend. The turning point of the market has gradually approached.