In late February, the domestic liquid chlorine market broke the downturn that lasted more than a year and ushered in a long absence of the spring market. As of March 3, the mainstream transaction price in major regions in China reached 500-1,000 yuan (t price, the same below), of which the mainstream price in North China was 900 yuan and that in East China was 1,000 yuan. The high-end prices of some enterprises even exceeded 1300 yuan a week. The increase has exceeded 100%. A leaping spring market is expected to be launched nationwide. The main reasons for the inflection point in the liquid chlorine market are as follows: First, the start-up of chlor-alkali enterprises is constrained. The caustic soda market experienced a continuous upward trend in the past year. In February of this year, the slow recovery of the downstream and the high inventory during the Spring Festival period began to weaken, constraining the chlor-alkali plant from effectively increasing the operating rate, and resulting in the production of liquid chlorine. The impact. At the same time, due to toxic, harmful, long-term storage and other reasons, liquid chlorine was sold at low prices in February, and even once zero-price sales occurred, setting a record low, and companies are basically zero-inventories. Therefore, in the context of weak caustic soda, the market supply of liquid chlorine is relatively tight. This is also in line with the market law of caustic soda and liquid chlorine. The second is that the downstream demand started pulling up the market. It is understood that PVC is the main chlorine-consuming product as liquid chlorine. The company's operating rate has remained low since last year affected by the downturn in real estate and other industries. Even at the beginning of the year, the overall domestic operating rate fell below 40%, which is also the main reason for the continuous drop of the liquid chlorine market. one of the reasons. Starting in February, the market was affected by the lower deposit reserve ratio, the expected increase in liquidity and the fine-tuning of real estate policies in many places. Some large-scale new construction projects were started one after another, combined with strong international crude oil prices, favorable international environmental economic conditions, and other favorable effects. The market sentiment has improved and there are signs of recovery. The operating rate has also slightly increased. The domestic comprehensive utilization rate has reached about 50%, and in March, it is expected to continue to enlarge, becoming the main driving force for the liquid chlorine market. In addition, several chlorine-consuming products such as epichlorohydrin and methane chloride have also experienced a significant recovery of over 12% since the beginning of February, which has also contributed to the recovery of liquid chlorine. Third, the impact of short-term maintenance effect amplification. Large-scale chlor-alkali plants in Shandong and Hebei have been overhauled in March. The short-term output of the major chlorine-consuming areas has suddenly dropped. This will inevitably cause tight supply in the market. Because liquid chlorine is not suitable for long-distance transportation, the inflow in the low-cost areas will also be affected. With restrictions, regional prices may continue to widen. Affected by this, some merchants have a positive attitude toward purchasing, and in particular, the transaction prices of small and medium-sized retail investors continue to increase, and the short-term speculation effect has been magnified. Based on the analysis of the recent trend, the change in the operating rate of chlor-alkali enterprises and whether downstream demand can truly amplify demand is the focus of attention. After the rapid rebound, the short-term market does not rule out the possibility of renewed shocks after artificial speculation and the release of favorable corporate maintenance factors. However, with the warming of the weather, many chlorine-consuming products such as phosphorus trichloride and chloroacetic acid will have a good expectation in March, and the current domestic economic environment will maintain a good momentum, which will give medium-term and long-term benefits to the liquid chlorine market. Short-term shocks will not change the mainstream trend of long-term recovery in liquid chlorine. Y&YTRA , https://www.pvcprod.com
The domestic leap-over spring market for the liquid chlorine market is expected to start in the country