The blowout period has passed its own brand and sticks to 30% of the world

In the first seven months of 2011, the Chinese auto industry experienced a decline and adjustment after high growth. The development of the industry put forward new requirements for government management, industry direction, and corporate strategy. The Chinese auto industry entered a critical period of new development.

With the development trend of the low-speed adjustment of the automobile industry, the status of the Chinese automobile industry in the national economy, the driving role of GDP, the “encourage” and “restriction” of the country’s automobile industry policy, and the future policy trends, especially the upcoming The introduction of the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Development Plan" (2011-2020) and other issues raised a lot of discussion in the industry.

On August 16, Feng Fei, Minister of Industry and Economic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, in an exclusive interview with this newspaper, made a detailed interpretation of the above issues from the perspective of macroeconomic and industrial policies.

"The government can do a better job in policy stability."

"21st Century": Since the beginning of this year, China's auto industry has seen a slowdown in its growth rate. It has a lot to do with the policy. The original encouragement policy has withdrawn, and the new restrictive policy has been introduced. How do you view the uncertainties in the auto industry policy?

Feng Fei: The situation in the automotive market this year is certainly related to the policy. Starting from the second half of 2009, the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" will be implemented. The most important policy is the halving of purchase tax (less than 1.6 liters). From a large background, the automotive market has a very important role to the national economy. After the financial crisis, major automobile-producing countries, such as Germany and the United States, have implemented similar measures. This kind of policy is bound to disrupt the development of the automobile industry. The normal laws of the past have led to the release of the potential for consumption in advance. This problem has also emerged in Germany.

When the policy is withdrawn, there is a great deal of volatility and decline in the auto market. However, stimulus policies must be withdrawn, and long-term stimulus policies are not sustainable. In addition, from the point of view of auto consumption, many auto industries are not fully equipped. We have not yet prepared for the advent of the auto society. The rapid growth of the auto industry will inevitably bring about a series of negative impacts. The most serious problems are traffic jams, energy and environmental problems. This round of policy uncertainty is not unique to China, but is caused by a rare financial crisis of a hundred years. Various encouraging policies adopted after the financial crisis were adopted by major countries. At that time, it was considered that economic growth could be stimulated through the development of the automobile industry. To promote economic recovery.

"21st Century": How do we understand the introduction of restrictive policies?

Feng Fei: The main factors that determine the development of automobiles are different at different stages. In the early and middle stages of development, the dominant factor is per capita disposable income, that is, per capita GDP. Although the automotive industry in various countries has a wide gap in development, there is convergence in terms of consumption – the use of automobiles has increased. With the growth of GDP per capita and the growth of the automobile market scale, after the growth to a certain scale, the main factors affecting it will add a very important factor - public policy. This policy is generally not uniform and regional, such as Beijing, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong imposed congestion charges to curb private car consumption.

In different stages of development, there are different dominant factors affecting the automotive market, especially in mega cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. The large-scale use of automobiles has brought about some negative impacts. The adoption of a restriction-purchase policy has indeed enabled the private consumer market to be controlled quickly. However, on the other hand, there are also problems of absolute policy and insufficient flexibility. Uniform policies and administrative measures have brought about other impacts. The policies of mega cities have a certain role of demonstration and will cause other cities to follow suit. Big fluctuations.

At present, the problems in the Chinese auto market are, on the one hand, the problems brought about by the previous stimulus policies, and on the other hand, because of the relatively rapid control measures after the stimulus, I think the government can do a better job in the stability of the policies, but Do not ignore the financial crisis as an emergency and it is difficult to avoid these problems.

The bottom line of self-owned brands should be 30% market share "21st Century": When will the abnormal growth of the auto industry this year be restored, depending on what factors?

Feng Fei: Actually, the current paradigm development in automobile industry consumption, from large cities to small and medium-sized cities, from coastal areas to the west, is a common consumption characteristic of China's bulk consumer goods. The stimulus plan of the auto industry economy in the previous two years led to two. The growth of sales in the third-tier cities and the rapid growth of small-displacement vehicles, especially mini-vehicle consumption, and early release.

In terms of small-displacement vehicles, there are still many articles in the Chinese auto industry that can be done. For example, 10% purchase tax, 1% to 40% consumption tax, and especially taxation, there is still much room for adjustment. The miniaturization of automobiles is an important means of energy saving. The development of new energy vehicles and electric vehicles also needs a process. At present, new energy vehicles are still in the embryonic stage and are still far from mass production. The energy saving in the auto industry seems to be very important. Traditional cars should focus on miniaturization, increase fuel efficiency, and use tax leverage.

The encouragement policy for small-displacement can be long-term, not only a means to respond to the market downturn in the short-term, but must be considered from the perspective of sustainable transportation and sustainable development of the automobile. I believe that tax collection must be based on fuel efficiency. Not displacement, because the same emission of different technologies, how to promote the development of fuel-efficient technologies, the most important thing is to use the price signal of taxation, this aspect of the "Article" promising.

"21st Century": In this adjustment process, self-owned brand models have been hit against the joint venture brand, and the self-owned brand is facing greater pressure for survival. Some people believe that under the guidance of the policy, the independent brand in the new pattern is very strong. necessary?

Feng Fei: The pressure of self-owned brands comes from two aspects. On the one hand, self-owned brands are greatly affected by policies. Under the purchase restriction policy, the purchase index is difficult to obtain. Once obtained, it will lead consumers to choose higher-priced models. The consumer market is The short-term impact of self-owned brands will be highlighted. On the other hand, China's consumer market is multi-layered, and consumption is diversified. There is room for growth for independent branded companies. Differentiation strategies can be adopted. Joint ventures and independent brands will have differentiated market competition, but with the development of the automotive market, The competition has become increasingly fierce. The original market has a layered boundary and the product line of the joint venture has moved downward. The situation facing independent brands is severe and the growth space is squeezed.

Prior to this, the rapid development of self-owned brand cars will not happen. Before that, the proportion of self-owned brand sedan was about 30%. In the first seven months of this year, there was a downward trend. In the future, the market share of self-owned brand cars will enter a stable period, and it is also possible. Declined. If the self-owned brand can maintain its market share of 30% without falling, it will be a very good result as the auto market grows at the same time. This shows that there has been a change in the environment of China's own brand.

"21st Century": In the face of the "milestone" changes in the environment, the independent brand should have what alert?

Feng Fei: The competitive advantage of self-owned brands has always been in terms of price. However, as consumption gradually matures, price is not the only factor, and factors such as reliability and security gradually increase. Enterprises with self-owned brands should take the intensive type rather than the episodic development in the past. In the era of extensive development, large-scale expansion has already passed. At that time, some domestic-funded enterprises seized opportunities to develop such as the Great Wall, Chery, and Geely, but that kind of bloated growth is gone forever.

In the environment where the market and consumer behavior change, the independent brands must grasp the technology. The intrinsic quality of the car is the quality and intrinsic quality based on technical support and technical support, including reliability, durability, and safety. We need to improve our cost-effectiveness by relying solely on price competition and transforming into a comprehensive competitive advantage.

"New energy vehicle development plans should increase support for R&D and application demonstration."

"21st Century": Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been brewing in the "energy-saving and new energy automotive industry development plan (2011-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as "planning") will be introduced in the near future, the state of the new energy vehicle policy development ideas what? The policy guidance for new strategic industries should be based on the principles of our new energy automotive industry.

Feng Fei: There are seven fields in strategic emerging industries, and new energy policies are also among them. Compared with other emerging strategic industries, new energy vehicles are small in scale and have a single product. The seven fields can be divided in such a way that there is a relatively mature technology in one type of field, and the main direction of the policy is the application of technology, which can lead to industrial growth. One type of technology is not mature enough, there is a certain demand in the market, and policies play a role in R&D and application demonstration. There is also a class of technology that is even more immature. Policies focus on R&D and industrialization. New energy vehicles are the second category and are relatively immature in technology, especially battery technology. Policies should combine R&D innovation support with application demonstration.

"21st Century": The latest issue of "Qiushi" magazine published an excerpt of Premier Wen Jiabao's report at the Eighth National Congress of the China Association of Science and Technology, referring to the direction and ultimate goal of China's new energy vehicles is not very clear. The existing policy seems to have appeared to be incompatible with the symptoms. What are the reasons and how will the adjustments be made in the future?

Feng Fei: In the ten years since China’s new energy source, the central government spent two billion yuan to support it and adopted the “three vertical and three horizontal” development strategy. Three vertical drives are pure electric, hybrid, and fuel cells; three horizontal batteries, motors, and electronic controls. The policy mainly lies in R&D, which lays a good foundation for technology accumulation. The next stage should further clarify the dominant technical line. The first period is full bloom and the latter stage is more concentrated. The dominant technology line clarifies two: pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

In the future, the new energy development plan should be more focused on the two technical lines. In addition, we must increase policy support. We look at the United States. In fact, after Obama took office, he focused on plug-in hybrid vehicles and paid US$14 billion in financial support. . In this process, policies mainly focus on two aspects: first, R&D, with the core being battery technology; followed by increasing application demonstration. From the perspective of application and demonstration, personal vehicles are still not enough, and supporting facilities such as charging facilities are obviously inadequate. Service facilities must be strengthened in the field of private vehicles.