Petrochemical industry overheated early warning investment

The “Twelfth Five-Year” development plan for petroleum and chemical industries that has received much attention from the industry (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”) is about to be unveiled. It was learned from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "Petroleum Federation") that the contents of the "planning" have been approved in principle by the higher authorities and are currently undergoing final revision and finalization. It is expected that it will be officially announced at the end of this month. .

"Planning" proposes that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of the petrochemical industry will maintain an average annual growth rate of over 10%. It is estimated that by 2015, the total industrial output value will reach around 15 trillion yuan; at the same time, more than 15 sales revenue will be generated Yuan's ultra-large-scale enterprises, the industry to achieve "from big to strong" transformation.

"Complete the target of total output value is not a big problem. On the contrary, the problem lies in the overheated investment and overcapacity in the petrochemical industry. We have deliberately lowered some of our growth targets, but the actual final development is likely to be far more than 10%. We need to be vigilant. The bubble brought about by continued overheating,” said the insider of the petrochemical federation’s internal participation in the “planning”.

Controversy over speed

"As a programmatic document guiding the next five years of development in the petrochemical industry, the total control and guidance of the '12th Five-Year Plan' is the most difficult, and the controversy has been the most controversial in the formulation and has undergone several changes." The insider of the "planning" formulation said.

The development goal set forth in the preliminary draft is: During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate of the total economic output of the petrochemical industry will reach 13% to 15%; and by 2015, the total output value of the petrochemical industry will reach 160,000 to 18 trillion yuan. yuan. This is tantamount to double the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan".

According to statistics released by the National Development and Reform Commission, by the end of 2010, the total output value of China's petrochemical industry was 8.88 trillion yuan.

Such a high-speed development goal has met with fierce debates when soliciting opinions from industry experts. The objection is that the central government's "12th Five-Year Plan" has lowered the economic growth target from 8% to 7%. The petrochemical industry also needs to slow down and adjust its structure.

In the end, the goal of lowering the goal has dominated the mainstream. From April 25th to 26th, the petrochemical federation convened the third session of the second council to discuss and approve the "12th Five-year Development Guide for Petroleum and Chemical Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guide") and clarify the "12th Five-Year Plan" petrochemical industry. The average annual growth rate of total output value is over 10%. By 2015, the total industrial output value will reach 15 trillion yuan.

The aforementioned "Guideline" target is basically determined and will be announced on the last Friday of this month. It may only be modified in part of the details. "Planning" will also put forward some hard constraints indicators, such as requiring "the petrochemical industry, industrial added value, energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the "Eleventh Five-Year" end by 15%, the total amount of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide emissions were Decrease by 10% and 7%."

“In terms of total economic output of the industry, we do not advocate too fast. The development targets of 10% and 15 trillion may be slightly conservative. However, taking into account the structural adjustment needs during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, substantial progress should be made in industrial restructuring. If it is too fast, it will be difficult to guide,” said Cai Enming, deputy director of the Research Department of the Industrial Development Department of the Petrochemical Federation.

From the current situation, "planning" is likely to be a wishful wish. After the petrochemical industry began to bottom out in 2009, it resumed rapid growth in 2010, and the growth rate was as high as 34.1%. Among them, the chemical industry output value reached 5.23 trillion yuan, has surpassed the United States, ranking first in the world.

The “China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Operation Report” issued by the China Petroleum and Chemical Association predicts that the total output value of China's petrochemical industry will reach 10 trillion yuan in 2011, and economic growth will remain in double digits. At the same time, "it will inevitably face the dual pressure from the outside world, which is mainly a comprehensive overcapacity, inflation, energy-saving emission reduction and so on."

The temptation of "too profitable"

In the group discussions of the Shanghai delegation of the two sessions this year, NPC deputy and Chairman of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Shu Guangdao made sharp criticisms of the current status of the petrochemical industry. He believes that: The layout of the petrochemical industry in the country is quite unreasonable, production capacity has been surplus, but all over the place is still running.

In the course of his speech, one of Shanghai's major leaders intervened and said, “The reason why the local governments kept on launching is because your industry is too profitable and you can increase local government revenue.” It caused a laugh at the venue.

The word “too profitable” reveals the cause of the overheated investment in the petrochemical industry. Under strong money-making effects, the investment impulses of companies and governments are very strong. Local governments hope to use large-scale petrochemical projects to drive GDP to increase their performance; enterprises hope to staking and seize markets to earn more profits.

During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the petrochemical industry is one of the most attractive industries for investment, and the investment in fixed assets has grown at a high rate. The total investment in 2010 was 894.5 billion yuan, an increase of 279% from 2005, with an average annual increase of 30.5%. Compared with the average annual growth rate of fixed assets investment of 25.5% in the society at the same time, it is 5 percentage points faster.

In the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, there was no indication that the petrochemical investment boom will weaken.

Most of the provinces and cities that have announced the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" have adopted the petrochemical industry as a pillar industry or a key development target. According to incomplete statistics from the “Financial National Weekly” reporter, there are currently more than 10 provinces including Guangxi, Guangdong, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Shandong, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Fujian planning to build large-scale petrochemical industrial bases. .

In fact, for many provinces and cities, it does not have the advantage of developing the petrochemical industry. Taking the central province of Hubei as an example, only a small oil field with an annual output of more than one million tons—Jianghan Oilfield—is located in the province, but the petrochemical industry ranks among the seven 100 billion pillar industries in the province and plans to During the 12th Five-year Plan period, "multiplier" was achieved.

“The urge of local governments to get large oil refineries and large chemicals is very strong, and the total number of projects planned in various places during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is very large. If there is no resource base, they will find ways to 'settle' state-owned enterprises and pull up central enterprises to invest in them. If the project is left unchecked and developed, it must finally be distributed everywhere and there is a serious surplus. It is better to see how the government can coordinate and balance this issue,” Cai Enming told the “Financial National Weekly” reporter.

What is the power of regulation and enforcement?

In the face of a booming investment boom, how the petrochemical industry's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has achieved effective guidance has become the focus of the moment. From the perspective of most of the industry, reducing the development goals does not play a mandatory role. The key lies in the resolute implementation of the central government's control measures.

On April 12, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Regulations on Regulating the Orderly Development of the Coal Chemical Industry", which urgently halted the coal chemical industry that has severely overheated investment. Before the new approval list is issued, coal olefins projects with an annual output of 500,000 tons or less and coal-to-methanol projects with an annual output of 1 million tons or less will be banned.

This is another definitive regulation issued by the National Development and Reform Commission under the overall overheating of petrochemical investment.

However, whether the NDRC's “sweeping spell” can be effective can still take time to verify. Judging from the development of coal chemical projects in recent years, most of the previous regulatory measures of the National Development and Reform Commission came into being. In the process of regulation and implementation, actual efforts have been greatly reduced.

As early as July 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Circular on Strengthening the Management and Construction of Coal Chemical Industry Projects to Promote the Healthy Development of Industries”, requiring all levels of competent authorities to suspend the approval of coal-to-oil conversion projects and ban the annual production scale to be under 3 million tons. The coal-to-oil project; in August 2008, the right to review and approve the coal-to-liquids project was transferred to the central government; in June 2010, the local approving power of coal-to-gas was also recovered by the central government.

However, more and more adjustments are made to coal chemical projects. According to incomplete statistics, at present, the newly added coal used in the construction and approved coal chemical projects in the country has exceeded 100 million tons, and the planned total new coal use for the project is still several hundred million tons. The amount of investment and the number of budgets are as high as trillions. Only one province in Shanxi has explicitly stated that it will invest more than 800 billion yuan in the field of coal chemical industry.

“Most of these coal chemical projects are the product of the marriage of large central enterprises and local governments. The state requires regulation and control. The pace of staking by the central enterprises has not stopped at all. The enthusiasm for local projects and supporting resources has not diminished. The major projects are unlicensed. The central enterprises are all holding the country's money to invest in, how to stop the Development and Reform Commission? The loss is still the country." An industry inside the petrochemical federation said.

The implementation of the policy will directly determine the petrochemical industry's health during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. If left alone, the consequences will be very serious. At present, in many sub-sectors of the domestic petrochemical industry, the signs of serious excess production capacity are already evident, and the industrial bubble is already very large.

According to public data, by the end of 2010, China's total refining capacity had reached 10 million barrels per day, which was higher than the apparent oil demand of 1.35 million barrels per day. In the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, several major oil companies will also build 13 new large-scale oil refinery projects with an additional refining capacity of 320 million tons/year. By then, the national refining capacity will exceed 800 million tons/year, and the surplus will exceed 250 million tons/year.

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