Industry latitude and longitude: urea market gradually felt cool autumn

Industry latitude and longitude: urea market gradually felt cool autumn

Since August, the urea market situation has turned sharply, and prices have fallen rapidly. Dealers dare not rush to purchase, urea manufacturers ship difficulties, inventory is gradually increasing, sales pressure, after the beginning of autumn domestic urea market has gradually felt cool autumn. However, the future trend of the urea market is still the focus of attention.
Oil and gas companies have different influences The main factors affecting the cost of urea are oil, coal, natural gas prices, and transportation prices. In recent years, international oil prices have risen the most, followed by coal, and natural gas prices have risen relatively slowly. According to the survey, the average production cost of oil-headed urea enterprises in China is about 1300 yuan/ton, and the average production cost of coal-head urea enterprises is about 1200 yuan/ton, while the average production cost of gas-head urea enterprises is about 1,000 yuan/ton.
Because 65% of China's urea production is based on coal as the main raw material, while coal is also the fuel for urea production, the ton of urea raw materials and fuel coal is 1.5 tons to 1.8 tons, accounting for about urea production costs. The two-thirds. The main reason for the current high prices of fertilizers is the high price of coal. In the second half of the year, the country has reduced or eliminated export tax rebates and other regulatory measures to curb the production and export of high energy consumption, high pollution, and resource products. It is expected that the domestic coal supply tension will be effectively mitigated. However, in the second half of the year, China's coal industry adopts a new taxation or special fund policy. The increase in coal production costs will inevitably be transferred to coal prices. Therefore, there is little possibility that coal prices will continue to drop substantially. Different types of coal will show different Run the trend.
On the other hand, international oil prices are still hitting new highs. In mid-August, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude oil futures broke through the “high price” of US$67 per barrel and once again set a new record. At the same time, as the domestic economy will continue to maintain rapid growth, it is expected that China's demand for crude oil and refined oil will maintain a certain growth rate in the second half of the year, and domestic oil prices may continue to remain high in the second half of the year. The high price of oil will inevitably cause transportation costs, especially the new round of price increase of Qiyun, which will eventually be passed on to urea consumers.
Due to different supply and demand patterns, the increase in natural gas prices is less than the increase in oil and coal prices, and the use of natural gas in China adopts a sub-user pricing policy. Fertilizer companies use gas to implement planned gas prices within the planned supply volume, and the prices are relatively cheap. Although from the long-term trend of energy shortage in our country, the National Development and Reform Commission will slowly increase the price of natural gas, but in order to stabilize fertilizer prices, the country will continue to support low-cost policies for fertilizer companies, so natural gas prices will not rise significantly. Therefore, the cost advantage of gas head urea companies will continue to be maintained.
Reduction of Export Pressure on Market Increases In the first half of the year, China's policy on export suspension and tax rebate has a limited effect on export restrictions. From the second half of the year, a series of policies issued by the state will have a very big impact on the export of urea and will directly As a result, the supply of domestic urea market increased, and market pressure increased sharply.
From January to May of this year, China’s urea exports are subject to a 260 yuan/ton export tariff policy, and the urea export volume has already dropped significantly. If the export tax is calculated according to the new policy of 30% tax rate, the export tariff will be at least 500 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the standard of 260 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. Urea exports will be further suppressed. As for 11 to 12 months, after the export tariff rate for urea is reduced to 15%, whether the export volume can be restored depends on the price trend of the international urea market. It is expected that the fertilizer output in 2005 will be around 800,000 to 1 million tons.
Decline in demand and increase supply of resources This year, the area of ​​grain for farmers in our country is about 1.558 billion mu, an increase of 34.3 million mu over the previous year, an increase of 2.3%, and the demand for domestic urea has thus increased. However, in recent years, China’s urea capacity has increased at an average rate of 10% each year, while the increase in demand has remained at around 5%. The increase in supply is greater than the increase in demand.
According to the characteristics of agricultural production in most regions of China, the amount of chemical fertilizers in the second half of the year was less than that in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, urea is only used in September. It is only in the fertile season. Only Jianghuai Plain uses urea as a base fertilizer, and basically no urea is used north of the Qinling Mountains. After October, the urea market entered the off-season in an all-round manner, and capable companies began to prepare for the winter storage. Therefore, the demand for domestic urea market in the second half of the year will obviously decrease from the first half of the year.
However, in the second half of the year, many large urea expansion plants will be put into operation, such as the second set of 500,000 tons/year of Inner Mongolia Tianye; the second set of 170,000 tons/year of Anhui Hanyuan; and the second set of Wuhua Petrochemicals of 550,000 tons/year. The device; Ningxia second set of fertilizer 700,000 tons / year and so on. 2 million tons of new production capacity, plus about 3 million tons of urea resources for export to domestic trade (3.94 million tons exported in 2004, minus the estimated 8 million to 1 million tons that could be exported in 2005), the total social resources will be higher than Last year increased by 5 million tons, which is much higher than last year's total resources.
It is difficult to lift the price of VAT. China's industrial urea accounts for about 20% to 25% of the total urea resources. After the country's elimination of VAT on urea, the wood-based panel industry will increase costs by about RMB 200/t; the AC foaming agent industry will increase costs by about RMB 400/t; the melamine industry will increase costs by about RMB 600/t. The downturn in the downstream market will affect industrial urea production. The ability to withstand the formation of pressure, this effect has begun to appear in August. In addition, after entering August, almost no urea is used in agricultural production. When the agricultural urea resources are overcrowded, the cost of industrial urea users will increase, and the price of urea will be difficult to increase.

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