Zhang Yi: It is not bad for car sales to decline in successive months

According to the latest automobile production and sales information released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, domestic vehicle terminal sales have declined since the beginning of April for three consecutive months. Car inventory also reached the upper limit of reasonable inventory. Some media exclaimed that China's automobile production and sales are facing an inflection point in the sharp decline in production and sales, and there may be negative growth in the second half of the year.

However, there are also views that the current domestic automobile market is already on the scale of tens of millions of vehicles, and the base number is large. It is difficult and unrealistic to pursue high-speed growth of 40% and 50%. Chinese cars cannot grow wild, and they cannot blindly pursue high speed and high growth. Maintaining a normal and modest growth will benefit both the automotive industry and the entire industry. Judging from the current situation, 15 million vehicles will be produced and sold throughout the year, and it should be no problem to achieve 10% growth.

The automobile is an industry with a high level of internationalization and significant economies of scale. After nearly one hundred years of development, the global automobile industry has continuously merged and reorganized. In the end, there are only a dozen multinational car companies left. A financial tsunami, the global automotive industry was hurt. Global automobile production and sales have fallen sharply and there has been a serious excess of auto production capacity.

Although there are still some domestic models in short supply, even car prices can be mentioned. But overall, the domestic automobile production capacity can basically meet the market demand. With the slowdown of the auto market, some manufacturers have started to face a relatively serious product backlog. According to the statistics from the China National Automobile Industry Center, the sales volume of domestic auto terminals in the first half of this year was 7.18 million units. If exports were added, it would be about 7.5 million units. If the trend in the first half of the year is maintained in the first half of the year, domestic auto sales (including exports) can reach 1,500 this year. 10,000 cars. On this basis, if the annual growth rate is 10% from 2011 to 2013, the sales volume of domestic cars in 2013 will be around 20 million vehicles.

According to the statistics of relevant research departments, the production capacity of 14 major automobile companies in China will approach 18 million in 2010, and will reach 23 million by 2013. Together with other domestic automobile companies, the total automobile industry capacity will exceed 25 million. Compared with the domestic market demand in 2013, there will be 5 million capacity emptying.

The forecast of China’s auto demand cannot be overly optimistic. Due to multiple factors such as land resources and fuel supply, Tsinghua University’s research believes that the limit of Chinese auto ownership is 150 million vehicles, and this target is expected to be achieved by 2015. After China's car sales are estimated to reach the top of 20 million vehicles, it will fall back, and it may stabilize at the level of 15 million vehicles per year. The National Development and Reform Commission believes that the domestic automobile market will face a situation of slower growth and new production capacity becoming empty in the next few years. If there is no timely regulation, there will be excess capacity. Blindly rushing onto the automobile project is not in line with the law of industrial development, but also a serious waste of resources. The blooming of automobile industry parks is not only unfavorable to the merger and reorganization of China's auto industry, but also will aggravate the unsolved auto industry's "scattered, chaotic, and bad" situation.

The shocking global Toyota recall incident has sounded the alarm for the current automobile development model. The main cause of this incident was Toyota's excessive pursuit of scale and efficiency, over-compressing costs, and ignoring quality management and personnel training.

Some analysts believe that the occurrence of the Toyota recall incident has its inherent intrinsic factors and is an inevitable consequence of the current development model of the world auto industry. Under the background of severe excess production capacity, multinational automobile companies have continuously expanded their production and sales scale through mergers and acquisitions, and frequently launched new models in order to maximize their market share. This mode of development places too much emphasis on scale and effectiveness while ignoring quality and safety.

Due to strong demand, sales of domestic autos have grown in volume, and many automakers have encountered production bottlenecks and have worked overtime to increase production. As the sales situation is too good, many models are in short supply. Some auto manufacturers have neglected quality management and the quality of automobiles has declined. According to statistics from consumer associations around the country, the number of complaints concerning automobile products received by consumer associations across the country increased significantly in 2009.

In order to compete for market share, domestic automobile manufacturers have set high growth targets this year and have expanded production capacity. In 2009, more than 200 new models were launched in China, and hundreds of new models were introduced this year.

In order to reduce costs, vehicle manufacturers desperately pressure suppliers to lower prices. Some parts suppliers have been forced to lose their jobs, cutting corners and lowering parts standards. There are problems with spare parts and how to ensure the quality and safety of the entire vehicle.

Behind the prosperity of China’s automobile industry, there are huge risks hidden. The unsustainable high speed of the foundation cannot be sustained. Blindly expanding the scale beyond its own control and control capabilities will surely lead to a big leak.

When China's autos are growing rapidly, they need to calm down and conscientiously sort out what they need to find a development model that meets the law. We must pursue quality growth, stably and steadily, and steadily move forward. Barbaric growth has no way out.