After the Spring Festival, the domestic fertilizer market was driven by the fertilization of spring farming. The ex-factory price of urea rose slightly from 1,850 yuan (t price, the same below) in December last year to about 2080 yuan. However, with the end of the “winter wax fertilizer†in the winter wheat region from south to north, the driving force behind the continued rise in the price of supporting urea gradually lost. At the same time, due to the urea industry demand and export has no signs of start-up, and the cost has a certain supporting role, so under the influence of ups and downs, the price will enter the shock consolidation period in the next few months. - "Winter wax fertilizer" has become the protagonist of the price of urea. Since the winter and this spring, the average daily temperature of major winter wheat regions in China has been generally lower than usual due to severe cold weather. Among them, Lunan, northern Jiangsu, northern Anhui, southern Henan, etc. The use of “Winter wax fertilizer†was forced to prolong the use of wheat in the area. In the past, the agricultural business, which can be completed after half a month of the beginning of the year, is expected to be extended for the remainder of the month. Affected by this change in fertilization, the market price of urea has not risen sharply in the short term this spring, but it has shown a steady upward trend. The industry judged that the ex-factory price of urea exceeded the threshold of 2,100 yuan, or it would drop its peak and end this round of rebound. Domestic urea production in winter often maintains a high driving rate of about 70%. This aspect is for enterprises to maintain appropriate stocks, in order to prepare for the use of agricultural fertilizer in the spring; on the other hand, it is for the protection of production equipment. Chemical devices are generally contraindicated for long-term parking. Parking during the winter season is more detrimental to the equipment. Therefore, a large amount of thermal insulation and pressure-keeping funds are also required. This is very uneconomical in operation. Therefore, when the market is stagnant or declining, especially when the production and sales of urea are upside down, catching up with the warming of the weather, enterprises are often the preferred measure to reduce the load. By then, with the drop in driving rates and the reduction in product supply, it will naturally reduce the pressure of continued downward pressure on prices. In general, urea exports must have two conditions, first, the international market conditions are better, and second, export tariffs are moderate. At present, due to the spread of the European debt crisis, the global economic recovery is slow, and international urea demand is not rising. At the same time, the prices of oil and natural gas remain stable, and it also provides low raw material supply for overseas urea production, making Ukrainian and Turkmenistan rich in resources. Nitrogen fertilizers operate at low cost. China's urea is now implementing the 110% export tax rate for the peak season. This kind of taxation effort actually closes the export gate. Taking a step back, even if the export tax rate is 7% in the off-season, the current price level is also difficult for enterprises to bear. Obviously, urea lacks export incentives in the near future, and its price will naturally remain unchanged. Plastic Pallets,Heavy Duty Plastic Pallets,Plastic Serving Pallets,Plastic Storage Pallets Jiangsu Ru Shun plastic industry Co., LTD , https://www.rushunsuye.com
The prospects for the local hotspots in the northeastern market expected by the industry this year are also likely to fail. What is still fresh in the industry is that after March of last year, the northeastern region warmed rapidly, showing a tendency to develop with fertilizers, and coupled with poor transport, urea prices rose to 2,700 yuan in the short term, forming the second wave of the spring market. However, the supply and demand situation has changed this year. Even if the weather in the Northeast begins to turn warm recently, it will be difficult to reproduce the urethane market last year. Because of the acceleration of urea expansion in the northern regions, especially the new production capacity of 2.14 million tons of 4 backbone chemical fertilizer enterprises in Inner Mongolia, it is now ready to drive. As long as the northeast urea market starts, with the geographical advantage, products from Inner Mongolia and other places will flood into the Northeast . In contrast, nitrogenous fertilizer provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu are rejected because of high logistics costs.
Therefore, from late March to June, most key agricultural areas such as Huanghuai and the Yangtze River will enter the off-season fertilizer season. In addition, this year's northeast market is difficult to produce another wave of the market, and the rising trend of urea price will be lost. The price consolidation will become the mainstream trend. .
——Cost support and driving rate fluctuations will play a related role At present, urea production factors such as raw coal, electricity, fuels, labor, and logistics prices have risen in an all-round manner, including raw coal up to 1,600 yuan, resulting in high manufacturing costs and an industry average cost of 2,000 yuan. Yuan above. The high cost will also support the product price while reducing operating profit. Although the price of a product may fall below the cost price in the short term, it will not maintain the long-term phase of value and price due to the influence of the law of value. At present, the ex-factory price of urea only allows the production enterprises to maintain a meager profit, but there are also huge losses in the company's operations, which means that there is limited room for urea price reduction.
——Industrial demand and lack of export start-up opportunities urea industrial use is difficult to form a hot spot to stimulate the market because of the small amount of small areas. At present, the plywood market in the international market is in a sluggish state, and signs of improvement have not been seen recently. Some traditional plywood companies in Jiangsu, such as Jiangsu, have been forced to stop production. Production is widespread, leading to shrinking demand for urea in urea-formaldehyde rubber production enterprises. At the same time, with the cooling of the state's control over the real estate industry in the past two years, the demand for plywood in the domestic related industries has dropped drastically, and the market has shrunk by two-thirds. Therefore, the corresponding reduction in the consumption of these industries will make the urea market in the off-season even lighter, and price consolidation will be inevitable.
Urea market will enter the shock finishing period
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