The price of refined oil products has started to skyrocket: Some refineries increase prices two or three times a day

Recently, the international oil prices have continued to maintain a momentum of rising momentum. Driven by the crude oil rally, the domestic refined oil market has also ushered in a booming market.

Gao Jian Information Analyst Gao Jian told the "Securities Daily" reporter that investors have high expectations for OPEC's prolonged production cuts, US oil drilling volume declines and political turmoil in Saudi Arabia, multiple positive news provide continued support to the crude oil market, international The price of oil has risen to a new high in more than two years. The continuous rise in crude oil prices has provided favorable conditions for downstream products.

Thanks to a number of favorable factors, the domestic refined oil market has started a five-month rally, especially in the diesel sector, which has broken new highs during the year and the average diesel price has approached the average price of gasoline.

“The continuous increase in the refined oil market is inseparable from the increase in upstream costs.” Han Cong, a product oil analyst, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that since July, international oil prices have continued to rise, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries Implementation of joint production cuts, and the scope of production cuts are expected to expand and increase production cuts. Subsequently, Russia hinted that the reduction in production may extend the market's mentality again, coupled with crude oil demand side support, making international oil prices maintain an optimistic trend, but also making the refined oil market bullish expectations continue to heat up.

Although the demand for “Jin 9 Silver 10” had already passed during the peak season, after entering the month of November, the price of the gas and diesel engine market rose significantly.

According to statistics released by Jinlian, on November 6, the average price of diesel in the country was 6,597 yuan per ton, which was an increase of 1,537 yuan per ton from the lowest point in early July, an increase of 30.01%; the average price of gasoline in China was 6,669 yuan per ton. The lows in early July rose by 848 yuan/ton, or about 14.50%.

According to data provided by Zhongyu Information, due to the impact of overnight crude oil soaring, domestic oil products surged rapidly yesterday, with an increase of more than RMB 150/ton to RMB 300/ton.

Gao Jian also said that due to the current approaching winter, the domestic diesel market diesel negative market, resulting in tight market resources, coupled with the active operation of the downstream supplement library, refinery inventory is low, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose rapidly. In just three or two days, the cumulative increase in gasoline and diesel prices has reached 200 yuan / ton -300 yuan / ton, and even some refineries frequently appear twice a day or even three times the price adjustment.

“From the supply side, some of the main refineries have gradually entered the inspection and repair process. To respond to the peak production call for industrial companies during the national heating season, some refineries have taken the lead in implementing them, resulting in a significant drop in crude oil processing volume,” said Han Cong.

The record high international oil prices led to strong expectations for the increase in refined oil prices.

According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the current round of product oil pricing cycle has just entered the third working day, and the corresponding oil product increase has exceeded RMB 160/ton. Assuming that the international oil price in the later period will maintain its current level, domestic refined oil prices will once again usher in an upward adjustment on November 16th, and the upward adjustment rate will exceed RMB 200/t, and it is not even possible to eliminate the possibility of the biggest increase in the year.

Han Cong also said that the current round of retail price increase is expected to increase, the retail price of "two consecutive up" is no suspense, the news still has strong support in the face of the market. In addition, the short-term shortage of domestic diesel resources is difficult to ease. With the news and fundamentals resonating, it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will still have room to rise in the short-term and the overall price will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter.

However, she also pointed out that after mid-November, some regions in the north will usher in the peak season of winter stoppages, the demand for diesel oil will shrink, and the demand for gasoline will remain flat. Overall, it is possible to exclude the possibility that late stage bears will dominate. , The market may be under pressure this month.