The decline in the growth rate of construction machinery, the excavator market can be optimistic

According to the data released by Mechatra.com, the sales growth rate of the construction machinery industry continued to decline slightly. From January to November, the year-on-year growth rate was 49.51%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points from the previous month.

Analysis and Judgment 1) Since 2010, under the background of rapid growth in domestic fixed asset investment and real estate development, the construction machinery industry has experienced rapid growth, especially since cumulative sales growth in the first half of the year was close to 60%, due to construction machinery in the second half of the year. Sales entered the off-season, coupled with the impact of low and high prices before the previous year's base, the industry growth rate showed a slight decline. According to the data from January to November, the high growth rate of construction machinery in 2010 is basically determined, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 48%.

From January to November, the value of export delivery for the construction machinery industry was 16.426 billion yuan, an increase of 47.9% year-on-year.

In 2011, under the pressure of the country’s strengthening of macroeconomic control and regulation of the real estate industry, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry will decline significantly. However, the vigorous construction of affordable housing will offset this pressure to some extent, and the export market will continue to grow rapidly. It is very likely that the demand for construction machinery will continue to grow. We expect the growth rate of construction machinery to be around 20% in 2011.

2) Due to the difference in application areas and market saturation, the recovery efforts of different products of construction machinery are also different, and there is a certain difference in the growth rate of production and sales. The cumulative output of excavators from January to November was 169,600 units, an increase of 65.1% year-on-year. It was the fastest growing product among construction machinery; the output of loaders from January to November was 202.3 thousand units, an increase of 48.7% year-on-year; compaction machinery in 2011 After the growth rate was high and low, the output from January to November increased by 35.3% year-on-year; the growth rate of concrete machinery and cranes was relatively backward, and the output growth of these two types of products from January to November was 10.4% and 8.1%, respectively, significantly behind other projects. Mechanical products; It is worth noting that the monthly output of cranes in November increased by more than 29%. We believe that the main driving forces for the growth of crane output include promising export markets and low base year-on-year. It is expected that the cranes may maintain their Faster growth.

Investment advice The outstanding performance of key engineering machinery companies, especially in 2010, showed rapid growth. The current valuation is below 20x and maintains a “carefully recommended” rating. In the coming period, the market will gradually enter the annual report release period. Engineering machinery is expected to have better annual reports, valuation and growth are attractive, and some key companies are accelerating the pace of capital operation. Therefore, we expect the sector is likely to be in the annual report market. There is a better performance.

Among the key companies, Xugong Machinery's performance growth continues to be relatively good. In 2011, the dynamic price-earnings ratio was less than 18 times. The company's capital operation will also be accelerated. The investment value has better room for improvement, and the "recommended" rating is given.

In recent years, Sany Heavy Industry has undergone continuous capital operations. The scale of assets and profitability have increased significantly. With the diversification of the company's leading products, the growth rate of 2011 earnings is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio in 2011 is about 13 times, giving a "recommended" rating.