In 2017, car executives quit the industry and suddenly changed their lives.

Since September 9 this year, after the Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Xin Guobin announced that he had initiated a study on the timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in China, the so-called specific ban period was of concern.

Since then, some countries have given more specific plans. Among them, Norway and the Netherlands propose to prohibit the sale of traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles from 2025; Germany has passed a resolution to ban all fuel vehicles on the road since 2030; India’s energy sector also stated that it will only sell electric vehicles by 2030; Britain and France announced that they would stop selling petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040.

In this regard, Yin Chengliang, deputy dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University and a senior research expert in the new energy automotive industry, told reporters that although the market share of fuel vehicles at home and abroad has an absolute advantage, huge amounts of carbon are produced under the huge pressure of environmental protection. The fuel pressure of the fuel vehicles to give way to new energy vehicles is undoubtedly the future development trend.

He said that for our country, although the basic conditions for defueling are not fully met in the short term, the future development trend must not be violated.

When interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily, Zeng Dongping, Chief Marketing Officer of Dianka Motors, said that the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is a “trend” and “regardless of whether such a final sales schedule is formulated or not, Radical or mild, this is always the general trend."

The reporter learned that according to the "2017 Digital Car Report" released recently by PricewaterhouseCoopers Management Consulting, PwC Sloan predicted that around 2025, due to sufficient charging facilities, electric vehicles will develop rapidly. The price will also reach the critical point. From 2025 to 2030, the cost of pure electric vehicles will be lower than that of diesel locomotives.

It is worth noting that although the development of new energy vehicles and the prohibition of the sale of traditional fuel vehicles are a general trend, Fu Yuwu, chairman of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, said: “The prohibition of sales of fuel vehicles is a big thing, and our country is on the issue of prohibiting the sale of fuel vehicles. Be cautious and cautious, follow the laws of science, and follow the laws of the market (consider). Do not follow blindly."

The reporter learned that according to the “Energy-saving and New-Energy Auto Technology Roadmap” released by the China Automotive Engineering Society, it is expected that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2.1 million by 2020, with a penetration rate of 7%; by 2025 and 2030, Annual sales reached 5.25 million vehicles and 15.2 million vehicles, and the penetration rate reached 15% and 40%.

However, according to data released by the Ministry of Public Security Traffic Management Bureau, as of the end of June this year, the country’s vehicle ownership reached 205 million vehicles. Calculated according to the net growth rate, by 2025, the sales of 5.25 million new-energy vehicles will still account for a relatively low proportion of the country’s total car ownership.

Although the development of new energy vehicles is the trend of the times, but for the specific time for the implementation of the ban on sales in China, CUCH Secretary-General Cui Dongshu said in an interview with the “Securities Daily” reporter that the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles and the development of new energy vehicle system projects are not It may be done overnight and it cannot be done across the board.

In the view of He Xiaojin, director of the brand marketing department of SAIC's Rongwei brand, this is a process that requires gradual progress. The reporter noted that in the past year, there were rumors that China would ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2025, but this rumor was denied by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

In this regard, automotive analyst Yan Jinghui believes that the possibility of a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles within 10 years is small and difficult. He said that, after all, China still uses fuel trucks as its mainstay, and when it has not completely switched to the new energy industry, it is unable to do a good job in the after-sales service of holding nearly 200 million vehicles.

Professor Yin Chengliang also stated that the timetable can be discussed, but be cautious. “I personally feel that for quite some time it should be the era of co-existence of internal combustion vehicles and electric vehicles. Even if the fuel vehicles are so called “forbidden”, to some extent, pure fuel vehicles will not exist, and hybrid energy-saving vehicles will also Existed for quite a long time." In his opinion, it is not now possible to get out of this step immediately. "We must say one time point, or it may be after 2030."

Chen Yusong, general manager of Singularity Sales Company, told reporters: “I believe in the strength of the market. When electric vehicles grow to a sufficient level, this kind of replacement will occur naturally and does not require government-driven policies to promote. I believe that the market’s Power will play the most fundamental role."

Traditional car executives frequently jumped

New car forces open up talent battle

At the end of November, it was reported that Cheng Xianlei, the chief engineer of SAIC, which was responsible for the SAIC's own brand technology, had recently left SAIC to start a new car manufacturing company; in mid-December, Beijing Automobile Group Standing Committee member and Beijing Automotive Group New Technology Research President Li Feng bid farewell to Beiqi, which has served for eight years, joined Weilai Capital and served as a partner. This series of news once again triggered the industry's discussion on the topic of the departure of executives from traditional car companies.

In fact, according to "Securities Daily" reporters and statistics found that the traditional auto makers jumped into the new forces of manufacturing companies, the phenomenon of frequent occurrence in the past two years.

In the SAIC Group, before Cheng Jinglei, in March 2016, Zhang Hailiang, the former vice president of SAIC, joined LeTV, and in October of this year he took the position of Chairman and CEO of Beijing Electric Café; in January, the former CFO of SAIC Motor Co. The new vehicle-building force, Ai Chi Yi-Wei, was co-founder and CEO.

In addition, Fuqiang at the helm of Everglades came from Volvo; Dray, co-founder of FMC, came from Infiniti; Ding Lei, Murphy, and Chen Weixu had previously held senior positions in traditional car companies; Wei Ma CEO Shen Hui played for Geely and Volvo; Xiaopeng Vice President Liu Minghui was vice president of FAW R&D Institute.

At the same time, it is worth noting that, as new carmakers enter the eve of mass production, the proportion of talented people from traditional car companies is increasing.

Taking Weilai Automobile, which officially announced the first production car in recent days, as an example, the reporter noticed that in addition to its founder and chairman Li Bin, most of its executives have experience working in the traditional automotive industry.

According to public information, Zheng Xiancong, co-founder and executive vice president of Weilai Motors, was the general manager of GAC Fiat Auto Co., Ltd.; in February of this year, he went to Weilai Motor to serve as vice president and Zhu Jiang, who was responsible for marketing, branding, and public relations work. Previously, he was Deputy General Manager of Lexus China.

In the senior management team of the electric coffee car, in addition to the chairman and CEO Zhang Hailiang from the traditional car companies, there have also been the original executive deputy general manager of Volvo China Sales Corporation, Xiang Dongping, LeTV as the original Chinese chief technology officer Niu Shengfu and others Figure.

According to Zhang Hailiang, a reporter from the Securities Daily revealed that the members of its core team now have an average of more than 20 years of industry accumulation, partly from traditional industries, including Porsche, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen, General Motors, Geely, Zotye, and Chery.

In response, analysts who do not wish to be named told reporters that “the dream of a new vehicle-building company’s builders needs the support of these insiders”. In his view, the concrete implementation of ideas is obviously not supported by Internet thinking alone.

He said that from the production, testing, and sales of the car, it is impossible to rely solely on the PPT presentation of the conference. In the end, it was implemented to create an electric vehicle that could be put on the road and could be sold. In addition to the change in the way the power output was changed, the body, chassis, and steering systems were still part of the traditional car architecture.

From this perspective, for the traditional cars, they have accumulated a complete production system, testing system, quality control system, sales and after-sales service system in the development process, and have worked for many years as senior management personnel in this system. For Internet companies who want to make a dream come true, they obviously assume the role of “director”.

Zhang Hailiang once told reporters that “Internet companies focus on iterative thinking, and that products can be iteratively updated after they come out. However, traditional companies often make repeated trials and push, and pushing a product for many years often misses the opportunity.”

Although the above analysts indicated that for the industry, the flow of talent is a good thing, which will help improve the overall level of China's auto industry. However, some people in the industry believe that, from another point of view, the traditional car companies executives to switch to the Internet car manufacturers, is a great threat to the traditional car companies, the brain drain will cause traditional car prices in a more disadvantageous position.

In response, the above analysts said that with more and more talented people "job-hopping," Internet-based car repair to a certain extent is no longer "PPT repairer", but the real sense of mass production. He said that although the process is not necessarily easy, it still needs time and market inspections, but it is foreseeable that the internet builder will slowly enter a “climax.” The new forces of the traditional car companies’ core talents will also appear to be increasing. Become a new normal.

Foreword: In 2017, the keywords of the Chinese automobile industry could not bypass the “new forces of building a vehicle”, “fuel sales ban”, “turning of car executives”, and “airfield airbags”.

Last year, the sales of new energy vehicles did not reach the annual sales of 700,000 vehicles. The sound of uncertain prospects for new energy vehicles at the beginning of this year was not unheard of. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Minister Xin Guobin announced that it has started the schedule of China's ban on fuel vehicles. After the study, the so-called specific ban period of time has attracted much attention.

The first thing that jumped out was the big auto companies, and BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu, the pioneer of new energy vehicles, said that by the end of September, “All cars will be included by 2030, China will fully popularize electric vehicles”, the rumor sparked a thousand waves. In October, Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, a state-owned enterprise, announced that by 2025, it would stop selling traditional fuel vehicles. In December, Xu Heyi, chairman of BAIC Group, stated that by 2020 it would stop sales of its own-brand traditional fuel passenger cars in Beijing and, by 2025, completely stop production and sales of its own brand of traditional fuel passenger cars in China.

After a large number of auto companies have expressed their ambivalence, the heads of car companies who have also been convinced that the traditional fuel vehicles will remain mainstream for the next 10 years are hesitant and confused. Even some of the traditional car companies have accelerated their involvement in the field of new energy vehicles. In November, Cheng Xianlei, the chief engineer of SAIC, which was responsible for SAIC's own brand technology, went to work for new car makers. Prior to this, SAIC Vice President Zhang Hailiang and SAIC CFO Gu Feng They resigned to join new energy vehicles; in December, Li Feng, president of Beijing Automotive Group Party Committee and president of Beiqi Group New Technology Research Institute, joined Weilai Capital Partners.

With the traditional car companies executives to join the new energy vehicles have become a flood, the new forces of China's car makers from the "fire of the stars" has gradually become a "climacteric trend." According to the latest statistics from Bosch China, at present, China's new car manufacturing enterprises have exceeded 60. Although the Weilai cars, electric coffee cars, Xiaopeng vehicles, Weimar cars, and Singularity vehicles that have been in front of them have successively released mass production models, these new car builders can only rely on traditional cars before they have obtained production qualifications. Enterprise OEM can market products. What is even more frightening is that the new forces that are still building in the middle of the country are still precarious and uncertain in the face of uncertain industrial policies.

Sure enough, when some of the traditional car companies caught up with the first wave of new energy vehicles, financial subsidies were completed to complete the accumulation of funds, but also to seize the market. It was reported that, in 2018, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will fall by 40% compared with 2017, and the overall subsidy will drop by more than 60%, but the previous subsidy of 20,000 yuan for 100 kilometers to 150 kilometers will be cancelled. It is worth mentioning that the voice of cancellation of local subsidies has also been heard. Among them, Beijing may be the first to withdraw from local subsidies in 2018. Is there a market for subsidized new energy vehicles?

When new energy vehicles are still growing up, the traditional automotive industry is facing a global recall caused by component failures. Up to now, the global number of vehicle recalls caused by the Takada Airbag has exceeded 100 million vehicles. Among them, the Chinese market involved the recalling of 22 million vehicles, involving 28 automakers, totaling more than 100 recalls, involving more than 100 models.

Tian Tian’s recalls dragged down Tiantian Airbags and gave Chinese companies opportunities. Ningbo Baisheng’s US subsidiary Bai Lide Security Systems (KSS) acquired Gaotian at a price of nearly US$1.6 billion (approximately RMB 10.6 billion). Junsheng Electronics can start Gaotian's patents and technologies, and at the same time transfer these to China or KSS companies. This long-term value is far greater than the acquisition cost.

Looking ahead to 2018, the past year has been "buying, buying and buying." Which company will be targeted by Li Shufu? The new carmakers listed on the market will face the test of a complete sales year in 2018. Will there be a dark horse driving the new energy car market? Stay tuned for the upcoming New Year!

Frequent car recalls

Takata balloon continuous wave aftermath

At the end of the year, at the beginning of December, AQSIQ issued a series of recall notices, involving a total recall of 1,113,500 vehicles and more than 200,000 tires. Including Mercedes-Benz, Dongfeng Honda, FAW-Volkswagen, FAW Pentium, Hyundai and other 11 car prices.

In addition, according to incomplete statistics, as of the end of November this year, China's General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine announced that the number of car recall announcements has reached 169 (including tire brands), exceeding the number of announcements for the entire year of 2016.

Among them, it is worth noting that from the perspective of the recall of the vehicle involved, the impact of the defects on the Takata airbags, which was the culprit that pushed the tide of car recalls to the highest level last year, continues to linger.

According to rough statistics, only in the first half of this year, there were 47 recalls involving airbags and seat belts, involving 1.536 million vehicles.

At the same time, on the first day of December, the recall incident triggered by Takada's problem balloon resurfaced. Mitsubishi Motors Sales (China) Co., Ltd. announced the recall of 2,879 Pajero vehicles. The reason for the recall was that the airbags of the passenger seats of some vehicles were equipped with an ammonium nitrate gas generator produced by Takata Corporation without desiccant. During the deployment of the airbag, the gas generator may be damaged, causing debris to fly out and injuring people in the vehicle. This poses a safety hazard.

According to data, as of now, the number of vehicle recalls caused by Takata's airbags has exceeded 100 million vehicles worldwide. Among them, the Chinese market involved the recalling of 22 million vehicles, involving 28 automakers, totaling more than 100 recalls, involving more than 100 models.

At the same time, due to large batch sizes, multiple manufacturers have adopted a batch recall model. The recovery of Takada's “problem airbags” has not yet been completed, and the recall will probably be delayed until 2019. Takada’s creditors said that recall fees and multiple lawsuits have made Takada overwhelmed and the company’s debt exceeded US$30 billion.

Regarding this, some industry insiders who declined to be named stated that “recall is the performance of car companies to safeguard consumer rights and responsibility, but also shows that their mistakes in the field of product quality work have caused defects in the manufacturing process, especially safety. The deficiencies in these aspects caused these recalls."

However, some analysts pointed out that, unlike 2016, the major automotive recall events in 2017 were all made by the company after the company discovered the problem and applied for a recall to the AQSIQ. It can be seen that compared with the auto industry, the auto companies faced the defects in their own products. In the past, there was a more positive attitude. In particular, self-owned brands also began to dare to face defects and implemented a recall to build a confident and responsible corporate image.

New car companies have exceeded 60

Upgrade brand wins and loses in three years

With the end of 2017, the domestic product planning for new vehicle manufacturers has gradually become clear. When the products of these newly-built automakers are no longer merely conceptual exhibits, many insiders lament that they may indeed be the “spoilers” in the Chinese auto market.

"Securities Daily" reporters according to the latest statistics from Bosch China show that at present, China's new car companies have exceeded 60. Before the actual mass production, various emerging manufacturers are accelerating their investment in factories. Most of these newly-built automakers are striving for the qualification of new energy passenger vehicles as soon as possible, and one of the prerequisites for obtaining qualifications is to have their own technology and production base.

In fact, qualification is the foundation for new car companies to establish themselves, and R&D and production bases are the biggest hardware thresholds for the dream of asset-free vehicles. Therefore, obtaining more funds and finding a suitable location to build a factory has become one of the focuses of the work of the constructors in the past year.

The reporter noted that in the forefront of Internet manufacturers, the first light electric vehicle (SEV) of the car and home has already been put on the line at its first production base in Changzhou; Xiaopeng Automobile has chosen to cooperate with Haima Motor to solve the qualification of the manufacturer. Question: On October 12th, its first batch of 15 mass-produced SUV models had already been put on the line in Zhengzhou. The production base in Zhaoqing will be completed and put into production in 2019; Weimar Automobile has just held a brand conference, and its first production vehicle has been officially launched. Debut, mass production in its Wenzhou smart manufacturing plant off the assembly line in 2018; Weilai Automobile has signed a cooperation agreement with Jianghuai Automobile, the first Weilai Center has been unveiled recently, its first model ES8 has announced prices and high-profile listing.

In addition, the emerging car companies from the PPT to the product off the assembly line and even volume production continue to refresh the cost of capital cap. On the evening of December 5, Weimar Automobile announced that it had completed a new round of financing led by Baidu Capital, Baidu Group and others. As of now, the total financing of Weimar Automobile has exceeded 12 billion yuan. Before that, Weilai Motors also completed a new round of financing of more than one billion US dollars in early November; the zero-run car announced on Dec. 4 that it started the pre-A round of financing led by Sequoia Capital China Fund.

In fact, the continuous financing plan on the one hand shows that the new forces of construction are favored by the market. On the other hand, compared with the traditional car companies that have solid capital, the Internet companies also rely on the chess game that is based solely on financing to create new cars. Auto companies are highly dependent on the capital market.

“The newly-built vehicle company ultimately did not die from financial problems but died of the product.” Some insiders pointed out that new car manufacturers are currently flocking, but the final elimination rate may be very alarming. New car companies that can survive in the future may only have 3 homes -4 homes.

In response, Cui Dongshu said that with the intensive launch of new products by Internet-based car makers, it means that the new forces of carmakers must begin to truly accept the test of the market. In his opinion, Internet-based car makers rely heavily on capital, and if the products are not accepted by consumers after the mass-produced car is put on the market, the company will be unable to sustain it.

It is worth mentioning that, for these new multi-gold players, applying for access to new energy automobile production enterprises requires design and development capabilities, production capabilities, product consistency assurance capabilities, and after-sales service and product safety assurance capabilities. The manufacturing capacity is exactly what many emerging vehicle manufacturers lack.

In order to land products at an early date, new car manufacturers have to seek the help of OEMs; and some OEMs are willing to share production lines. After all, the use of surplus production capacity at the same time as OEM production can create additional revenue.

Some analysts believe that the new automakers adopt the "two legs" of OEM and self-built factories to make progress. Secondly, they can learn about auto manufacturing experience from the OEM and facilitate the application of qualifications in the later period. OEM can be understood as a transitional mode for special periods.

For future development of new energy vehicles, Li Bin, Chairman of Weilai Automobile, believes that it should not rely solely on technological progress to solve the problems. It is necessary to rely more on innovation of business models and innovation of product design to develop new energy vehicles using market strategies. .

“From 2018 to 2020 is the only three-year window for brand upgrading of China's electric vehicle industry. It must be resolute, be firm and long-term, and don’t consider short-term petty profits.” Li Bin said It is a start-up company, but we are very resolute in terms of brand building."

Subsidy decreased by 40%

Some New Energy Vehicle Enterprises Meet the Survival Test

The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles adopted in 2017 was released at the end of 2016. The current subsidy policies require more detailed requirements for the power battery power density of passenger cars, passenger cars and logistics vehicles. On the whole, the technical threshold for subsidies has been raised. At the same time, the subsidy standards have been raised, the amount of subsidies has been reduced, and the direction of guidance for new energy vehicles has become clear. The subsidy policy is more rewarding for high-energy-density batteries.

It is worth mentioning that although overall subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2017 have fallen by 40% compared to 2016, it is still difficult for the domestic new energy vehicle market to continue its rapid growth. At the end of 2017, whether it is for ordinary consumers or people in the industry, the concern is still whether the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be cancelled or lowered in 2018?

In fact, the "subsidy" will undoubtedly become the key word for the new energy vehicle industry in the new and old alternate years. A few days ago, the news that new energy subsidies will shrink by 20% in 2018 has sparked heated discussions. After experiencing the earlier stage of “national purchase + financial support”, the new energy vehicle subsidies that affect the industry’s nerves may usher in another downward adjustment.

"Securities Daily" reporter learned from the latest exposure of the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy program that this subsidy adjustment is still the largest area of ​​new energy bus, compared to the 2017 financial subsidies, in the relevant technology inspection indicators, increased The inspection of the unit load capacity consumption has improved the requirements for the power battery system's energy density and fuel saving level. In the subsidy amount, it is further reduced by 40% compared to 2017, and the overall subsidy is reduced by more than 60%. Previously, the 20,000 yuan subsidy of 100 kilometers to 150 kilometers in length was cancelled.

It is worth mentioning that the voice of cancellation of local subsidies is also heard. According to media reports, relevant departments are drafting policies to urge local governments to cancel subsidies for new energy vehicles to resolve local protectionism. Among them, Beijing may be the first to withdraw from local subsidies in 2018.

According to industry insiders, the new subsidy policy on the one hand has released the signal to support strong and strong support. On the other hand, it is not ruled out that excessive adjustment rhythm and multiple technical indicators will disrupt the production pace of car companies. In the future, new energy vehicle enterprises will further improve the technical level of the vehicle, but at the same time, they must also reduce the cost of the three power companies.

It is worth mentioning that, for the earlier argument that the subsidy mileage of new energy vehicles will be reduced from 30,000 kilometers to 10,000 kilometers, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, thinks it is good news for the industry. "The 30,000-kilometer limit is too difficult for passenger cars, leading to serious delays in subsidies. Policy development should distinguish between use scenarios, reducing the 30,000-kilometer passenger car limit is imminent."

Although the policy has not yet been introduced, the controversy has begun to change the details of the new subsidy policy. In fact, the cumulative sales of A00 pure electric vehicles currently account for nearly 70% of the total sales of pure electric vehicles. If the new energy subsidy policy is implemented in accordance with the draft plan disclosed above, the amount of subsidy for A00-grade pure electric vehicles that can obtain national and local subsidies will be reduced by 50% compared with the past. The government exerts pressure through technology and capital to force innovation in technology and technology of the enterprise. The practice of reducing costs will lead to the marketing of large-scale low-end vehicles and small-scale car companies.

In response, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Centennial Association, said that it can be expected that when government subsidies for cars disappear, it is the day when foreign and joint venture brands enter the Chinese market.

Some analysts believe that most of the patented technology and intellectual property rights of the joint venture companies are concentrated in the engine and transmission fields of the fuel machine, and they will not do as much as the independent car companies before the liquidation. However, as fuel limits approach and the new energy market continues to prosper, the joint-venture car companies with mature technologies will have a strong impact on the field of new energy vehicles.