ExxonMobil's latest "2040 Energy Outlook" believes that by 2040, due to the growth of population and the improvement of living standards in developing countries, energy demand will increase by 35%. By then, oil and natural gas will continue to meet the global demand. Part (60%) of energy demand. The developing countries such as Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia account for almost all of the increase in energy demand, while the energy consumption in the more developed regions such as Europe and Japan during this period will decline slightly. In terms of road transport fuels, gasoline consumption will remain stable by 2040, and diesel consumption will increase by 75% to meet the growing demand from trucks and other commercial transport vehicles, of which the largest commercial transportation demand will come from heavy vehicles. , such as trucks and buses. Demand for fuel from heavy-duty vehicles is expected to increase by 70%, accounting for approximately 60% of the total increase in diesel demand. The increase in global business activity has not only boosted the demand for diesel, but has also boosted the demand for biodiesel and jet fuel. The two main factors leading to the stagnation of gasoline demand are the increase in vehicle fuel efficiency and the increase in the number of hybrid vehicles. By 2040, hybrid vehicles will account for 35% of global light vehicles. The increase in fuel efficiency may partially offset the increase in energy demand in the commercial transportation sector. More efficient cars, aircraft, ships and trains, as well as improvements in logistics systems (such as joint transport), will help slow down the growth of transport energy demand in many countries. In the next 30 years, crude oil demand will increase by 25% and natural gas demand will increase by 65%. The Middle East, North America and Russia are expected to supply most of the oil and gas. Due to the increase in the production of natural gas condensate, oil sands and tight oil in North America, the production of liquid products in North America will increase by 40% over the next 30 years. With rising production and declining demand, by 2030 North America will shift from a large import of crude oil to a state of balanced import and export. In the Middle East, production of liquid products in the Middle East will increase by 35% due to the increase in the development of conventional oils in Iraq and the increase in natural gas condensate and tight oil production in the region. As Brazil continues to develop biofuels and deep-water oil resources and Venezuela continues to develop heavy oil resources, the production of liquid products in Latin America will nearly double. It is expected that natural gas will replace coal in the next five years and become the most used fuel for power generation. By 2040, the ratio of unconventional natural gas to total natural gas production will increase from the current 40% to 65%. The rapid development of shale gas in North America has brought down the price of natural gas, and the environmental advantages of natural gas as a clean energy source have been the main reason for natural gas to replace coal. In addition, safety issues related to the use of nuclear energy, the cost and stability of renewable energy sources, have also contributed to the predominance of natural gas in the use of clean energy. In the next 30 years, North America and Russia will be the main producing areas of natural gas, and European oil and gas production will continue to decline. Although energy consumption continues to grow, carbon emissions are expected to peak around 2030 as governments around the world continue to raise greenhouse gas emission standards. ExxonMobil Co., Ltd. has responded to the ever-increasing trend of global environmental regulations by increasing the cost of carbon emissions by US$60/tonne in future new construction projects. Emissions reduction policies will promote the growth of renewable energy, such as biofuels, wind energy and solar energy, and are expected to increase by 60% by 2040 and account for 4% of total energy demand.
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ExxonMobil Announces "Energy Outlook 2040" Expected to Increase Demand by 35%