2011 macroeconomic situation analysis of the impact of the automotive market

China’s auto market is closely related to the country’s macroeconomic development. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, urban fixed asset investment was 2.1698 trillion yuan in January-November 2010, an increase of 24.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage point faster than that in January-October. . Among them, the state-owned and state-controlled investment was 8752.0 billion yuan, an increase of 19.0%; real estate development investment was 4,269.7 billion yuan, an increase of 36.5%. From the project affiliation relationship, from January to November, the central project investment was 1673.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year; local project investment was 1,938,160 million yuan, an increase of 26.4%. Among the registration types, from January to November, domestically invested enterprises invested 19582.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.2%; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese companies invested 671.7 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9%; foreign investment 722.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3%. In terms of sub-sectors, from January to November, investment in the primary industry increased by 16.6% year-on-year, investment in the secondary industry increased by 22.7%, and investment in the tertiary industry rose by 26.9%. In the industry, from January to November, the electricity and heat production and supply industries invested 101.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9%; the oil and natural gas exploration industry invested 219.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; the railway transportation industry invested 582.2 billion yuan, an increase of 25.3 %. From the perspective of construction and new construction projects, from January to November, there were 439,758 cumulative construction projects, an increase of 10,288; the total investment for construction projects was 4,989.7 billion yuan, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year; 301,937 new projects were started, a decrease of 15,075 over the same period of last year; The total planned investment for new projects started was 1,723.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. From the perspective of funds in place, from January to November, 238441 billion yuan of funds were in place, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. Among them, state budget funds increased by 14.2%, domestic loans increased by 24.8%, self-raised funds increased by 29.6%, and foreign capital utilization increased by 6.7%. From January to November, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,3922.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%.

In 2010, the country’s tax revenues achieved a steady growth, with a total of 773,900 million yuan, or 70,062 million yuan after deducting export tax rebates. The above tax revenues do not include customs duties, ship tonnage taxes, farmland occupancy taxes, and deed taxes. According to the State Administration of Taxation, in 2010, the taxation revenues of the taxation department were completed at RMB 6,686,200,000, an increase of 20.8%; and the import tax collected by the Customs was RMB 10,528 million, an increase of 35.9%. A total of 732.8 billion yuan of export tax rebates were processed nationwide, an increase of 13%. In respect of taxes, domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax and business tax increased by 14.8%, 27.5% and 23.8%, respectively, and income tax increased by 20.4%. In terms of regional distribution, tax revenues in the East, Central, and West regions increased by 21.1%, 23.5%, and 29% respectively. In addition, local taxation agencies also collected 1,125,600,000 yuan of other income such as social security funds, education surcharges, and cultural construction costs.

The Blue Book of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in 2010, the Chinese economy continued to maintain a high growth rate of around 10%. It is estimated that the total gross domestic product will exceed 37 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP will reach around 4,000 US dollars. In general, at the beginning of 2010, the Central Economic Work Conference established the three major goals of macroeconomic policies, namely, maintaining stable and rapid economic development, focusing on promoting economic restructuring, strengthening asset bubbles, and managing inflation expectations. According to a speech published on the website of the Central People's Government of China, Li Keqiang, vice premier of the State Council of China, stated that in 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by about 10%, and total retail sales of social goods will increase by 18.5%. In 2010, the contribution rate to China’s economic growth exceeded 90%. Li Keqiang also stated that China has the conditions and ability to maintain the long-term stable and rapid development of the Chinese economy. A good macroeconomic environment has laid a solid foundation for the development of the automotive market.

Normally, the growth rate of the auto industry is still about 1.5 times that of GDP. However, why is the growth rate of autos in our country in the past two years so high? In 2009, it was an increase of 52%. In 2010, it also increased by more than 40%. Almost doubled. One of the reasons is the guiding role of the national policy. The other is the popularity of the second and third tier consumer groups in China, what are the second and third tiers? These groups are the majority of white-collar workers, because after the gold-collar group has completed one or two car purchases, the majority of white-collar workers are becoming the main consumers of cars. This is similar to the situation in Japan in the 1960s and in the early 1980s in Korea. The sales of cars in these two countries have also shown explosive growth. Although the growth rate is not as high as in China, it still lasts for 3-4 years. About 25%.

Referring to Xu Changming, director of the National Information Center, "The car purchase period was a phased one." The first phase of the rich group has now completed the popularization of automobiles in China. Nowadays, the car has begun to be popularized among the middle-income groups. The income group should be understood as middle class or slightly lower than the middle class. There are frequent comments on the Internet that China does not have a true sense of middle production, and most of them belong to pseudo-middle-class production. This remark is somewhat reasonable, but we should see the uniqueness of consumption in the Chinese auto market. According to foreign theoretical judgments, the average car purchase price is the family's annual income, but in many Chinese families, the car purchase price has even reached 3-5 years. The family income, why is this? For a simple reason, IPHOE4 currently has a market price of more than 6000 yuan. According to a normal understanding, if the monthly income is less than 5,000 yuan, it is impossible to buy this mobile phone. However, many users who purchase this mobile phone simply do not reach this income class. Why do they need to buy it? This is a matter of catching up with fashion. The car we can think of is a means of transport, but in the eyes of many people it is a fashion product. People who buy fashion goods do not consider the balance between income and vehicle prices. This is called "overflow consumption." According to the experts interviewed by the author recently, this part of fashion consumer groups is not a minority in China. These people have now become or are becoming the main force of automobile consumption in China in the future.

There are also some groups that we cannot ignore. This is the vast majority of landless peasant brothers in the process of urbanization in China. This part of the group is also the main force for buying cars. According to Su Hui, chairman of the China Auto Circulation Association’s visible market branch, Chinese automobile circulation The Association’s tangible market branch conducted extensive market research in some of the rural villages where land was expropriated, and reached an astonishing conclusion that about 8% of land acquisition households purchased cars. This is not a small number because of the current urbanization process in China. Soon, a large number of farmers have changed from rural households to urban households every year, showing how much market potential there is. Why do these people buy cars in large quantities? According to Mr. Su Hui’s analysis, after losing land, these rural villages received a sum of compensation that can be said to be in their eyes. After losing land, many people did not work, and some people bought cars in order to compensate them. "Being a black car" to support the family, more people are starting to consume, "Since there is so much money, enjoy the enjoyment first," is a true portrayal of the common people.

Let us look at the issue of regional differences in consumption in China. According to the preliminary survey of Creighton, the first-tier cities currently account for about 35% of China’s auto market. This figure has been declining year by year. The market share of third-tier cities is about 30%, and it has increased by about 10% in the past four years. Second-tier cities have also shown some growth trends. We can see that the second-tier and third-tier cities will become the growth point of consumption in the future Chinese auto market. With the serious traffic jams in major first-tier cities becoming increasingly severe and the urban roads unsuitable, major first-tier cities are likely to follow the example of Beijing and Shanghai. The practice of controlling car consumption will be even more detrimental to the car market in first-tier cities. Therefore, the second and third tier cities will play a major role in China's automobile consumption in the next 5-10 years or even longer. At the same time, the characteristics of automobile consumption in the second-tier and third-tier cities and first-tier cities are very different. As information is developed in first-tier cities, the concept of consumption is gradually in line with international standards. We can see that in the Beijing market, all types of models have their supporters. There are also many consumers who understand the car, and car consumption has gradually matured. However, in second- and third-tier cities, especially third-tier cities, this is far from the concept of consumption. According to the analysis of Director Xu Changming, the requirements for automobiles in the second- and third-tier cities are that the appearance must be large, the interior space is spacious, the vehicles are durable and the comfort configuration is high. The price is low. This theory seems somewhat contradictory, and it is not in fact contradictory because the consumer groups in the second and third tier cities have little knowledge of the vehicle's performance. Therefore, the company can save some of the cost on the vehicle performance and increase the vehicle comfort configuration. It is said that consumers in the second and third tier cities need a simple, comfortable, mature technology, and a high-deployed cart without much advanced technology and performance. This is determined by its cultural background and it is difficult to change in the short term.

The reason why the front said so many reasons is to tell everyone that the consumption potential of the Chinese auto market is still huge, and it is not possible to use foreign ways to apply the Chinese auto market. This is not in line with China's national conditions.

Because China has a vast territory, the difference in consumer attitudes is significant. Manufacturers should formulate differentiated product strategies based on differences in consumption in different regions. According to the judgment of Kerui Automobile Consulting, in the five years from 2011 to 2015, the Chinese automobile market, especially the passenger vehicle market, will still maintain a growth rate of about 15% or even higher. This will basically complete the purchase of cars in the second tier within five years. In 2015, the growth rate of the automotive market will still reach about 1.5 times GDP, which is the consensus of industry experts. Applying the words of Mr. Fu Yuwu from the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, “Do not have a Any doubts."

In terms of economic forecasting, there will be no such hot 2010 in 2010. The Chinese economy is a bit hot in 2010. Therefore, the apparent growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2011 will slow down. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese economy will grow relatively steadily in 2011, and the growth rate will remain at 9%. In 2011, China’s economy is still improving and will continue to grow at a high speed in the next 30 years. Including labor, capital investment and other factors that support the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past 30 years, will still exist in the next 30 years. Whether in the past 30 years or in the future, China’s investment in education has been enormous; and after 20 years and 30 years of development, enterprises have gradually come to the forefront. With the gradual improvement of the human capital, education level and scientific research system, I believe that innovation factors will play a greater role in China’s economic development in the next 30 years and can, to some extent, compensate for the rising labor costs. At the same time, China will further deepen its reforms. Chinese companies and the Chinese economy will continue to receive more benefits from globalization and make China's efficiency even higher.

There is also an important factor. In 2012, the top level of the Chinese government will face a full transition. In 2011, it will be the final year of many leadership terms. According to the theory of Chinese characteristics, any leader will not let the Chinese auto market excessively in this critical period. The ups and downs are definitely a smooth transition. This is determined by the characteristics of China's policies. No one can change it. Since the automotive industry is a pillar industry, local governments and central government are less likely to make the auto market decline too much during the sensitive period of the change. According to optimistic forecasts of some experts, by 2015, China’s auto market will reach an annual production and sales volume of about 30 million vehicles, and the annual production and sales volume of 50 million vehicles will be a number that may be capped because China’s roads and land conditions are not too It may be able to withstand the production and sales of more than 50 million vehicles.