Since the domestic crude oil price was lowered for the first time in the year on May 10 this year, the crude oil price in the international market has fluctuated all the way down, and the domestic refined oil price will be lowered again in early June. The price adjustment window will open this weekend According to data released by the Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on the 6th, as of June 5, the average moving price of crude oil in the three places (Dubai, Brent, Xinta) was negative 8.03%. According to the current oil price management method, when the average price of crude oil in the international market for 22 consecutive working days changes by more than 4%, the domestic refined oil price can be adjusted accordingly. China has lowered the price of refined oil on May 10, and June 8 will be the 22nd working day after the price adjustment. From the published price adjustment rules, the downward adjustment requirements have been met. Since the end of April, international oil prices have continued to decline. The US Texas Light Petroleum (WTI) fell more than 19%, and the British North Sea Brent crude oil futures price fell more than 17%. Chen Qing, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information's refined oil market, said that the expected decline in demand due to the slowdown in global economic growth, the market's concerns about the European debt crisis, the passive rise of the US dollar and the normalization of geopolitical factors in the Middle East have led to the international crude oil futures price. The main reason for the decline. In addition, the United States has repeatedly hit a record high crude oil inventories and poor economic data including unemployment rate has become an important factor in suppressing international oil prices for a period of time. Guo Haitao, deputy dean of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), said that the probability of a sharp rise in international crude oil prices in the short term is small, but there is limited room for further sharp decline. In the next three to four months, as China adopts measures to promote economic growth and the US economy to further improve, international crude oil prices may rebound slightly. How big is the price adjustment? According to the predictions of many domestic market institutions, the price of refined oil products may be reduced by a large margin, or it will reach more than 600 yuan per ton. However, Guo Haitao said that in view of the previous government's large-scale regulation of domestic refined oil prices and the recent correction of international crude oil prices, the price of refined oil products may not be as large as expected. According to the current domestic oil product price formation mechanism, the domestic refined oil price is indirectly controlled in line with the international market crude oil price. The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission previously stated that since 2009, oil price fluctuations in the international market have intensified, and the state has properly regulated the prices of refined oil products. The actual increase in domestic refined oil prices is lower than the increase in the market. Yan Xiaofeng, chief analyst of the petrochemical industry of the Galaxy Securities Research Department, suggested that the opportunity for the fall in international oil prices could be seized to gradually narrow the gap between the price of domestic refined oil and the price of international oil products caused by the inconsistency of domestic refined oil prices. Create conditions for the introduction of a new mechanism for pricing refined oil. When is the new pricing mechanism broken? With the sharp drop in international oil prices, market participants generally believe that the window for the introduction of a new mechanism for refined oil pricing is about to come. Guo Haitao said that the timing of launching a new refined oil pricing mechanism is very important. After the launch of the new mechanism, if the international oil price can enter a long-term decline, the trend is the best. The current decline in international crude oil prices and the slowdown in domestic inflation may be a good time to improve the current mechanism. Peng Sen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously said that this year, he will take the opportunity to introduce a reform plan for refined oil prices, shorten the price adjustment cycle, improve the price adjustment operation mode, and improve the transparency of the operation of the mechanism. Yan Xiaofeng said that small steps, slow adjustments, timely adjustments, and the feelings of the masses are the characteristics of the refined oil pricing mechanism. Guo Haitao said that after all, the international oil price trend is difficult to predict accurately. After the introduction of the new mechanism, China's refined oil prices will be more closely linked to international crude oil prices. Once the international oil price has risen sharply or frequently, how to avoid the impact of frequent and large fluctuations in domestic refined oil prices on the domestic economy is an issue that must be considered. He suggested that the improved mechanism could consider continuing to adopt intra-interval regulation. When the international oil price rose more than a certain range, the government would intervene necessaryly. Your Power, We Can! , https://www.aerobspower.com
·The second price cut of oil price opened this weekend