The emergence of engineering machinery pick-up signal

2012 was a year of anxiety for construction machinery. Although the number of exhibitors of BMW Exhibition, an unprecedented scale exhibition, increased, customers were decreasing. Seeing the end of the year, the sweltering winds of the cold winter came to the great season of work stoppages. However, in recent days, there have been more and more signs of the pick-up of construction machinery. At the BMW show, many business people showed their recognition and confidence in the potential of construction machinery. The construction machinery market, which should have been temporarily frozen along with natural trends, has given us a glimpse of the little stars ahead.

Analysis of excavator sales phenomenon First, look at a set of data. In August, 28 major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 5,495 excavators, a year-on-year decline of 30.12% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.64%. In September, 28 major excavator manufacturers sold 5905 excavators, a 7% increase from the previous quarter and a 33% year-on-year decline. In October, 28 major excavator manufacturers sold 5,921 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 33.64% and a month-on-month increase of 0.27%. In November, 28 major excavator manufacturers sold 6657 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 25.27%, and an increase of 12.43% from the previous quarter.

From this set of data, starting from September, excavator sales stopped at the scene. By November, the excavator's decline rate was narrowing compared to the same period of last year, and the increase was evident from the previous quarter. Although this analysis cannot be completely determined in the industry as a signal that the excavator will increase sharply, but in November, as the cold season of shutdown, the year-on-year decline has significantly narrowed and the chain ratio has risen significantly. The good news can't be ignored.

Railway construction continues to heat up On December 11, the Ministry of Railways released the latest data on railway investment in the first 11 months. From January to November, the Ministry of Railways completed a fixed asset investment of 507 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3 billion yuan over the 491.6 billion yuan of the same period last year. The increase was 3.1%, of which, the investment in infrastructure construction was 431.9 billion yuan, an increase of 35.6 billion yuan over the same period of last year's 396.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9%. Among them, railway fixed assets investment reached 81.8 billion yuan in November, of which infrastructure investment reached 70.1 billion yuan, both data are maintained at high levels of operation. In particular, infrastructure investment: In November last year, railway infrastructure investment was 29 billion yuan, an increase of 142% year-on-year in November this year. At the end of this year, railway infrastructure investment showed a “blowout” trend. From September to November, China’s railway infrastructure investment totaled 204 billion yuan, while the total investment in the first eight months of this year was RMB 227.7 billion.

In the second half of the year, key projects in some countries were started one after another, including the investment of over 150 billion yuan in Mengxi to the Huazhong Coal Transportation Channel, the investment of 68.8 billion yuan in Xi'an-Chengdu Passenger Dedicated Line, the investment of 64.7 billion yuan in Baoji-Lanzhou Passenger Dedicated Line, etc. There are also multiple urban rail projects, and the intensive construction boom will increase the number of new railway projects started this year from 9 at the beginning of the year to 22.

Wang Mengshu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, revealed that the investment plan and production milestones initially scheduled for next year may exceed this year's, railway infrastructure investment is expected to exceed 516 billion yuan, and investment in fixed assets will also be maintained at 630 billion yuan. Railway experts predict that the railway investment will be between 600 billion and 700 billion yuan next year.

Construction machinery company's stock eye-catching with the strong rebound of the Shanghai index to return to above 2000 points, the construction machinery sector performance remarkable. As of December 9th, 2012 at 9:00, the average gains of the sector reached 5.04%. Shantui, Xiagong, Liugong, Dagang Road Machinery and Tianqiao lifted 5 shares daily limit. The industry's two leading stocks Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. and China The company’s joint ventures have also made significant gains. The current increases are 7.54% and 5.51% respectively.

Recently, the increase in construction machinery sector jumped first. Construction machinery, Tatsuki Road Machinery Co., Ltd., Shantui Co., Ltd., Shanhe Intelligence Co., Ltd., Hebei Xuangong Co., Ltd., and Hengli Oil Cylinder Co., Ltd. saw large gains.

According to related person analysis, in recent months, infrastructure investment, new start-up of real estate, and medium- and long-term credit data have improved, and railway orders and construction machinery sales have improved month-on-month. It is expected that sales will improve significantly in the first quarter of 2013, but the extent and continuity of improvement cannot be judged yet.

It is expected that before the two sessions in the first quarter of next year, the market expects that the new government will focus on promoting the upgrading of the economic structure and accelerating the process of new urbanization. The policy expectation and the effect of the change of government on infrastructure investment will trigger a strong rebound in the construction machinery industry. . Together with the above indications, it should be Coke's view in 2013.