Parts Market Forecast: Half of suppliers will close in 10 years?

China's auto market has become the focus

When the analyst of the investment company's automotive industry investment consultant John Houffek analyzed the reasons, he said that due to the increasingly fierce competition in the auto market and the excessive increase in auto production, the pressure on auto prices has increased, which has affected some of them. The development prospects of automotive manufacturers. Component suppliers must continue to survive and will have to face low-margin realities. In order to remain competitive, some auto manufacturers and component suppliers have shifted their targets to the Chinese market because the cost of production in China is 30% lower than that in North America, Europe and Japan. The following are the main contents of other market surveys provided by this investment company.

In a few years, China will become a large country for auto parts and vehicle production. China's huge labor resources, large numbers of automotive engineers and lower production costs have made China's advantages in the automotive industry prominent. After China’s automobile production meets domestic demand, a large number of Chinese-made cars will be exported to the international market. It is expected that China’s automobile export revenue in 2008 will reach US$30 billion.

In the future, the stronger will be weaker and weaker.

Forty-seven percent of North American auto companies, 26% of European parts suppliers, and 36% of Asian parts suppliers are currently in danger. They have experienced a financial crisis due to falling revenues. The future development trend of the automotive industry is that the stronger ones are stronger, the weaker ones are weaker, and the well-run auto companies will make greater profits, while the poorer and troubled companies will find it harder to survive. There is no accurate figure to reflect the number of companies that are going to close down or will be acquired or merged. These highly indebted companies will find it difficult to borrow money from banks, and if they do, the interest will be high.

The current sales of Ford Motor Company and General Motors are not ideal. They must have enough market share to pay their large employees and retirees' salaries and pensions. However, it is not easy to gain more market share because Competitors in Europe and Asia have made the North American market the main sales market for increasing profits, and competition has become increasingly fierce. Previously, the American auto giants in Detroit almost monopolized the large truck and SUV market, and this segment of the market is now challenged by Asian auto companies.

The problem of overproduction is growing

Global automobile production has increased year by year from 1998 to the present, but the marginal revenue of Asian automobile manufacturers and component suppliers remains stable and at the same level. Globally, in the first quarter of 2003, the average operating margin of global automotive companies fell by 8% over the same period of last year. However, the operating margins of a few companies have increased, such as Honda, Toyota, General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler and Nissan.

In terms of global car production, the problem of overproduction in the auto industry will become more and more serious. By 2010, this problem will deteriorate rapidly. It is estimated that the annual global automobile production will reach 42.1 million units, which is 10 million more than the estimated annual production of 32.1 million units in 2003.

AlixPartners is a company that specializes in helping companies that are caught in crisis and restructuring, providing investment management, finance, and economic and legal support. It has been involved in the reorganization of the auto parts manufacturer, the company, and has become an authoritative organization in this area. General Motors' chairman of the board will also hold important positions in this company.

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