Traditional fuel vehicles ban sales on the agenda

Recently, the news that China is formulating a withdrawal schedule for traditional fuel vehicles has been continuously fermented, and new energy vehicle concept stocks have continued to soar in the capital market.

On September 9th, at the China Automotive Industry Development International Forum, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Technology pointed out: “Some countries have set a timetable for stopping the production and sales of traditional energy vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also started relevant research and will also formulate a The timetable for these measures will surely bring about profound changes in the environment and driving force for the development of China's auto industry."

Although it takes a certain amount of time for the traditional fuel vehicles to exit, starting to set a timetable shows that this is a general trend.

At present, China has become the world's largest new energy vehicle production and sales market. In 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 500,000 vehicles, and the cumulative number of new energy vehicles was more than 1 million, accounting for 50% of the world's total.

At the same time, China's automobile sales have seen rapid growth in the past few years. Driven by this, China's gasoline consumption has also maintained double-digit growth year-round. However, since 2016, the growth of gasoline consumption has slowed down significantly.

According to Jinlianchuang statistics, the consumption of gasoline in 2016 was 117 million tons, an increase of only 1.55% year-on-year, while gasoline consumption in January-July 2017 also increased by 1.27% year-on-year, including January-April. Negative growth. Although sales of automobiles in China continued to increase by 13.76% year-on-year in 2016, the proportion of new energy vehicles increased significantly over the previous year. In January-July 2017, the sales of automobiles in China increased only 4.1% year-on-year, but sales growth of new energy vehicles maintained at 20%. %the above.

Jinlian Chuangyan Li Yang told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the proportion of new energy vehicles has been continuously expanding, and the inhibitory effect on traditional gasoline consumption has become apparent, and with the continuous increase in the promotion of the later and more diverse ways of travel The emergence of gasoline consumption growth will still continue to slow down. Because the development of diesel vehicles in China is limited by the policy, the impact of the ban on sales in the later period is relatively limited.

It is worth noting that although the consumption of gasoline and diesel in China is declining, the production capacity is continuously expanding.

According to the statistics of China UnionPay, during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, China will continue to put in more than 200 million tons of production capacity, and the pattern of integration towards refining and refining will continue to evolve. Although late-stage backward production capacity will inevitably be integrated or eliminated, it still pales in comparison with the release of refineries. At present, the slowdown in the domestic economy and the development of new energy vehicles have already had a clear impact on the current supply and demand situation of refined oil products. After more and more resources are put on the market later, how to digest them will become an unavoidable problem.

It is worth mentioning that in the third quarter of this year, PetroChina Yunnan Refinery and CNOOC Huizhou Phase II refinery will be put into production successively. The former has 13 million tons/year of production capacity, and the latter includes 22 million tons/year of refinery expansion and expansion, and 1 million tons. /year ethylene project.

In addition, during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, Sinopec plans to invest 200 billion yuan to optimize and upgrade the four world-class refining bases in Maozhan, Zhenhai, Shanghai and Nanjing. After optimization and upgrading of the four major bases, the total refining capacity will reach 130 million tons/year, and 40 million tons/year of new capacity will be added.

According to the forecast of the China National Petroleum Research Institute, this year, the national demand for refined oil products is approximately 319 million tons, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year; refined oil production is 360 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the demand is higher by 40.43 million tons. The refining capacity is further in surplus.

Li Yang believes that the traditional ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is a development trend in the latter part of the world. China's new energy vehicles have been deployed earlier and have a certain advantage in the world. Moreover, China has already issued relevant policies and no longer build new traditional fuel automobile manufacturers in principle. . In order to adapt to the later development, traditional automobile manufacturers are actively embracing the new energy industry.

He also pointed out that in view of the large number of vehicles in China, and even after the ban on the sale of vehicles, it will take a long time, so the main position of China's gasoline consumption in the short term is still difficult to shake, but there is no support for new demand forces, the latter part of gasoline The gradual shrinking of consumption will become a reality. Traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers are seeking changes, and traditional fuel production and sales companies should also take precautions.