Tractor Market Perspective in 2010

In 2010, China's tractor market was operating steadily and presented many new features. The industrial output value and export delivery value continued to maintain a strong growth momentum. The domestic market demand for large and medium-sized dragged down the market, but the growth rate slowed down, and demand continued to expand toward big power; the small drag market continued to climb at a double-digit rate. . The efficiency of the enterprise has been operating well and the price has been stable. The export market has rebounded strongly. On the other hand, market demand in various regions is uneven, brand competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and market concentration is further enhanced.

The output value rose across the board, and all four indicators increased rapidly with double-digit growth.

Statistics show that from January to September this year, China's 204 major tractor manufacturing enterprises have realized total industrial output value, new product output value, industrial sales output value and export delivery value of 30.318 billion yuan, 5.223 billion yuan of 29.992 billion yuan and 1.822 billion yuan, up year-on-year. It increased by 10.65%, 19.64%, 11.73%, and 11.93%, respectively.

Corporate profits have risen and prices have risen slightly.

The economic benefits of agricultural machinery enterprises showed a slight increase with the rapid growth of the agricultural machinery market. This situation can be explained from the economic benefits of 26 major agricultural machinery manufacturers from January to August. Statistics show that in the first eight months, operating income, profit of 51.412 billion yuan and 2.111 billion yuan have been accumulatively increased, a year-on-year increase of 6.24% and 3.13% respectively. However, the value of accounts receivable and finished goods inventory was very high, which was an increase of 19.73% and 19.96% respectively.

From the analysis of product prices, this year's price movement of the agricultural machinery market has been mixed due to differences in product categories.

The price of harvesting machinery declined, and the average price dropped about 8% year-on-year; the average price of Dazhong tractors and walking tractors increased significantly, by 17.47% and 45.52% respectively; the average price of small four-wheel tractors decreased by 4.17%. The car dropped by about 10% year-on-year, and the three-wheel car dropped by 6.6%.

The total demand has grown and the demand structure has been adjusted.

Since the beginning of this year, the tractor market in China has continued to maintain a high level of operation. The total demand continues to increase by a double-digit increase. The medium-sized and medium-sized markets have consolidated and the growth rate has slowed down. Small tractors have continued to maintain a high growth trend. According to market surveys, from January to September this year, China accumulated a total of 1,186,600 tractors of various models, an increase of 18.33% year-on-year. Among them, 265,900 large and medium-sized tractors, an increase of 3.81%; small tractors cumulative production of 1.5508 million units, an increase of 19.58%.

The main reasons for the slowdown in China’s medium and large drag will be: First, last year’s China’s medium-to-large drag reached its peak, and this year it has fallen slightly, which is also in line with the law of development in which events will continue to decline; second, it will be analyzed from the development law of China’s medium and large enterprises for many years, and its development. It is a process of energy accumulation. This year is a year of great potential. The agglomeration of this "potential" mainly comes from the renewing of Dazhong Tuo. Third, the pull of China's agricultural machinery subsidies has weakened.

The reasons for the slow growth of China's small drag mainly come from two aspects. On the one hand, China’s small tow market has a huge amount of ownership, and market renewal has become an important reason for the growth of small drag demand. On the other hand, the use of hand-held tractors has expanded in recent years, especially in recent years. The extensive use of southern paddy fields, greenhouse operations and management, orchards, and mountainous areas has opened up a new space for the development of small tractors.

From the analysis of the demand structure of large and medium-sized companies, further adjustments occurred in the first three quarters of this year. Statistics show that the 90 series of tractors in China have become the mainstream model of market demand for large and medium-sized tractors. The cumulative demand for the first three quarters totaled 47,700 units, accounting for 18.14% of the total demand, an increase of 4.77 percentage points year-on-year. Market demand continues to extend to the basic trends of high horsepower tractors. In sharp contrast to this, the share of the 50 series, 60 series, 70 series and 80 series tractors decreased in different degrees compared with the same period of last year, of which the 80 series decreased by 4.83 percentage points year-on-year. From the analysis of the market demand characteristics of the medium-sized horsepower tractors from the 25th to the 50th series, there have also been signs of varying degrees of adjustment, with the 25 series down by 2.07 percentage points year-on-year, and the 30 and 40 series by 1.74 percentage points and 1.17 percentage points respectively. Although the market demand for tractors with more than 160 horsepower increased by 122.47% compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of households in the medium- and large-scale tractors was very low, accounting for only 0.34% in the first three quarters of this year. All of them, the era of China's high-powered tractor market has not really arrived yet, but represents a trend of future market development. However, we cannot ignore this trend. After all, China’s medium and large tractor tractor market is facing a rapidly changing market environment. In particular, China’s agricultural machinery cooperation organizations and agricultural machinery large households are quietly rising as the main demand, and have shown a rapid development trend. There will be an important role to play in changing the demand structure of China’s large and medium-sized companies.

The export market for tractors is growing rapidly.

Since the beginning of this year, China's agricultural machinery exports have fully recovered, showing a good momentum of recovery and growth. According to the statistics of the state's export of agricultural machinery, in the first three quarters of the year, China exported a total of 24,136 wheeled tractors, which achieved an export delivery value of US$142.94 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.26% and 24.93% respectively. The total number of tractors exported was 78,802 units, and the export value was 80,230,600 U.S. dollars, up 34.58% and 39.44% year-on-year respectively.

Regional patterns have changed and regional concentration has further increased.

From the analysis of the regional demand of large and medium-sized tractors, the regional demand for tractors in our country has undergone partial changes, and the regional concentration of large-, medium-, and walk-behind tractors has further increased. The demand in the mainstream demand regions has seen a corresponding increase and decrease in the ratio of the same year to the same period.

The market demand of large and medium-sized companies in China is highly concentrated.

The total accumulated demand for the top ten companies in the first nine months was 171,000 units, accounting for 73.35% of the total demand. Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Xinjiang are still the major demand areas for China's Dazhong Tow. The demand for Jilin and Heilongjiang in the first nine months of this year accounted for 13.05% and 11.24% of the total demand, respectively. However, the share of the region changed, with Jilin down by 2.78 percentage points year-on-year, and Heilongjiang up by 6.96 percentage points year-on-year. The market demand changed greatly compared with the same period of last year. The traditionally-demanding Heilongjiang Province market increased sharply by 146.69% year-on-year, and the demand in the Henan market also showed an upward trend of growth, with a year-on-year growth of 14.23%. Sichuan, Jilin, Xinjiang, and Liaoning experienced a larger year-on-year decline, with decreases of 34.12%, 22.67%, 20.6%, and 16.07%, respectively.

From the analysis of the development characteristics of the regional market of walking tractors, the basic characteristics are as follows: First, regional concentration is further concentrated, among which the total demand of the top 10 is 275,000 units, accounting for 78.88% of the total national demand, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year. . Jiangxi, Jilin, and Shandong are the top three enterprises in China in terms of demand for tractors. In the first nine months, the proportion of demand accounted for 21.32%, 12.11%, and 11.42%, respectively, while Jiangxi's share dropped by 2.03% compared to the same period of last year. Jilin, Shandong It increased by 6.3 and 2.7 percentage points. The demand for walking tractors in the Jilin, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shandong markets rose sharply in the first nine months of this year, up 132.03%, 68.62%, 51.87%, and 46.31% year-on-year respectively. Henan and Shanxi said that this was a different degree of decline from the same period last year, which dropped by 21.03% and 6.34% respectively.

The brand changed the market competition and the market concentration further improved. From the tractor brand analysis, the top 5 brands in China, including China One Trailer and Foton Lovol International Heavy Industry, accounted for 72.64% of the total sales of all 26 tractors, which accounted for 1.11 percentage points, and the market concentration The degree showed a slight increase. From the sales analysis, the cumulative sales of the top five brands in the first three quarters totaled 179,800 units, an increase of 12.77% year-on-year. From a single brand analysis, China First Tow, Foton Lovol International Heavy Industries and Dongfeng Agricultural Machinery showed a year-on-year increase of 20.04%, 14.76%, and 14.76% year-on-year, and the proportion of three brands increased compared to last year. At 1.79 percentage points, Foton Lovol International Heavy Industry and Changzhou Dongfeng accounted for 0.67 and 0.39 percentage points.

After dragging down the market analysis, statistics from 26 major tractor manufacturers showed that walking tractor Shandong Changlin still stands out. In the first 9 months of this year, the company’s market share was as high as 51.44%, an increase of 12.57 percentage points year-on-year; the Henan Qianli market share followed suit. After that, it accounted for 18.74%, but it decreased by 5.58 percentage points year-on-year. From the analysis of sales growth, Changlin accumulated 283,500 hand-held tractors in the first three quarters of the year, an increase of 60.67% year-on-year. Kunming Shenli increased 62.16% year-on-year, and other companies showed a certain decline. From the analysis of the small four-wheel tractor market, Shandong Shifeng continued to lead the small four-wheel tractor market in the first three quarters of the year, accumulatively selling 155,200 units, down 5.48% year-on-year. It accounted for 68.2% of the total number of 26 companies, an increase of 2.58 percentage points from last year. China’s trailer and Foton Lovol International Heavy Industry’s small four-wheel sales all showed a large decline, down 20.62% and 14.46% year-on-year respectively.

Consumer groups have quietly changed. Agricultural machinery cooperative organizations and large agricultural machinery manufacturers have gradually become an important component of dragging down demand for large and medium-sized enterprises. In recent years, China's agricultural machinery cooperatives and large agricultural machinery have rapidly emerged. In particular, since the publication of the Law on Farmer Professional Cooperatives, it has shown a momentum of rapid development. By the end of 2008, there were 8,622 agricultural cooperatives across the country, an increase of 3425 from 2007, an increase of 77.2%. The number of people entering the society was nearly 300,000, an increase of 31.5%. The total service area for the whole year reached 179 million mu, an increase of 67.3%. The total service revenue reached 5.65 billion yuan, an increase of 60.6%. The per capita service income of agricultural machinery cooperative members is nearly 20,000 yuan. At present, the average agricultural cooperative has an average of 35 members (households) per company, and 959 households serving agricultural services. The degree of organization, scale, and industrialization has been continuously improved. It has become a force to promote agricultural mechanization and the development of agricultural socialization services. Out of a strong vitality. The rise of agricultural machinery cooperatives and large farm machinery will fundamentally change the demand structure of China's large and medium-sized tractors. In the past, individual demand was limited by the purchasing power and the scope of operations, especially because of the lack of purchasing power and the market demand for large tractors. There are often large discounts, and agricultural cooperatives and large agricultural machinery companies that have united and developed have customer service. This will inevitably create a stronger impact on China's current demand for the market.

In the fourth quarter, the tractor market will see new developments. From the analysis of the trend of development of our country's tractors over the years, this year, China's medium and large tow market as a whole will enter a high consolidation period, on the one hand, the total demand will continue to remain high, on the other hand, the increase in the market will slow down. The reasons are as follows: First, the agricultural machinery subsidies of 15.5 billion yuan will continue to support the market demand for this year; Second, the situation of hotspots in the markets of China’s large and medium-sized tows will appear. Last year, the areas with insufficient subsidies for Dazhongzhong will be “repaired” this year; Third, traditional big markets such as black, new, Shandong, and Henan will continue to be the backbone of demand. Emerging markets, such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, will drive the market to operate at a high level. Fourth, the gradient update will become a drag on the market. The important power to maintain the high position, especially the replacement of China's trailers with small trailers, will continue to expand the market.

In the fourth quarter, China's small tractor market will experience a slight decline. The small four-wheel tractor in our country's small tractors has no agricultural subsidies. With the release of market demand for energy from large and medium-sized tractors, the small growth space will be squeezed. It is expected that the monthly average will also decline from October to December, and the decline rate will be 5 % to 10%.