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As soon as the first quarter of 2011 ended, many analysts in the industry re-estimated the trend of the heavy-duty truck market throughout the year. The sales of several domestic heavy-duty truck companies have increased or decreased, and there have been optimists and pessimists on the trend of sales. No matter what kind of analysis is based on the current trend of the heavy truck market, it is predicted that the heavy truck market sales in 2011 will have a lot of variables.
Domestic economic situation affects greatly
Judging from the regular operation of China's heavy truck market over the years, the sales growth curve is basically in line with the growth of the country's GDP, but it fluctuates slightly. If the growth rate of GDP in the year is relatively high, the increase in sales volume of the heavy truck market is usually larger. In 2010, China's GDP grew by 10.3%. The rapid development of macroeconomics is undoubtedly the driving force for the surge in demand for heavy trucks. In 2011, the country’s main target for national economic and social development was about 8% of GDP growth. Controlling GDP growth obviously has a great impact on the heavy truck market.
Controlling GDP growth will cause a certain degree of repression on new infrastructure investment projects. According to the statistics of the National Development and Reform Commission, the total investment of newly started projects has dropped from 46.81% in November 2010 (as a proportion of the total investment in fixed assets) to 22.9% in December 2010. From January to February 2011, it was even more. It dropped by 23.6%.
Some industry experts believe that according to the laws of the industry, the market in the last year of a five-year plan will generally not be very good, because the investment in fixed assets is basically completed. However, in 2010, heavy truck market emerged as a spike, especially the tractor segment. Judging from the current market situation, heavy truck companies that use tractors as their main products have indeed experienced declines in sales. As some unfinished infrastructure projects continued to be constructed in 2010, demand for construction vehicles continued to grow in the first quarter of 2011. Market sales continued to increase year-on-year.
Million in production and sales in 2010 has moisture
In 2010, a bright spot appeared in the automotive industry in China: not only did the total sales of automobiles exceed 18 million vehicles, while the production and sales volume of heavy trucks exceeded the one million mark, breaking the annual sales volume of heavy trucks maintained by developed countries. This is the history of the world’s automotive industry. event. Because even in the world, no country produces and sells 1 million heavy trucks, let alone break the 1 million mark. At present, China’s annual sales of heavy trucks account for more than half of the total sales of heavy trucks in the world.
As most companies are optimistic about the market trend in 2011, some people in the industry soberly see the problems hidden behind the big leap in production and sales. In 2010, the nation’s heavy truck sales exceeded 1 million, of which 150,000-200,000 were located in sales channels and refitting companies, and did not really reach end customers. In 2011, manufacturers must first digest the inventory vehicles left in the channel to continue to meet the new market demand, which is an important factor affecting the 2011 heavy truck market.
The heavy-duty truck industry in China has experienced rapid development in the past two years. In 2011, the market demand space has been small, and it is difficult for sales volume to increase continuously. Under this background, the production of water with millions of production in 2010 will undoubtedly become the main factor affecting the heavy truck market in 2011. According to statistics, the sales target for several major domestic heavy truck companies in 2011 is about 1 million vehicles. Based on the production and sales of 1 million heavy trucks in 2010, it will be worrying to continue to stand at one million steps in 2011.
Fuel consumption detection leads to big brake
In mid-March 2011, it was supposed to be a peak season for sales, but the market had been thrown into cold water by the "Measures for the Inspection and Supervision of Fuel Consumption of Road Transportation Vehicles" strictly enforced by the Ministry of Transport.
Due to the problem of setting the fuel consumption inspection process, during the transition period from March 1, 2010 to February 28, 2011, many heavy-duty truck companies are waiting to see how fuel flow inspection process settings can be more smooth and effective, and based on past experience, Determine whether this policy can be strictly enforced. When the transition period of the vehicle model was terminated and the company entered the full implementation stage, the company rushed to deliver the vehicle for testing, and hoped that more models would enter the "Table of Fuel Consumption of Road Transportation Vehicles Compliant Vehicles". However, at the onset of the sales season, the remote water is hardly thirsty, and the bid-winning models announced in batches are still unable to meet the market demand. No car can be sold, and this is one of the reasons why the peak season is not prosperous.
According to industry insiders, the fuel consumption inspection and management measures do have a certain impact on sales in the heavy truck market in the first quarter of 2011. However, as the number of qualified vehicles continues to increase, the factors that affect market demand will gradually be diluted. If there is no fuel consumption checkpoint in 2011, the tractor segment market will be much better than the current situation.
North African unrest affects exports
Despite the fact that China’s heavy truck exports are not large, Libya’s continued turmoil has affected domestic heavy truck companies’ exports to North Africa. It is understood that in 2010 Shaanxi Automobile exported more than 7,000 heavy trucks, and exports in North Africa accounted for about 50% of total exports. Hualing’s exports to North African countries account for 30% to 40% of the total export volume, and Algeria in particular has a significant position in the overseas market of Hualing.
At present, the situation in Libya is turbulent. Shaanxi Automobile, Hualing, Jianghuai and other enterprises have already withdrawn their local staff to the country. The local business is almost at a standstill. Apart from the turmoil in North Africa, other influencing factors, such as the adjustment of the country's export policy and the instability of local overseas markets, will affect the export of heavy trucks, but the impact of North Africa’s turmoil has been more pronounced in 2011.
The impact of multiple factors is large. In 2011, the domestic heavy trucks again achieved millions of sales with variables.
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