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Jan Poulisse, a UN Food and Agriculture Organisation expert, said that the high price index in recent years has promoted high agricultural output, and correspondingly increased fertilizer use, resulting in tight supply of fertilizers and high prices. Demand for basic foods, fruits, vegetables, animal foods and biofuels will continue to maintain strong growth. Therefore, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations expects that the fertilizer supply will grow rapidly to meet the demand for high fertilizer demand.
The report expects that from 2008 to 2012, the total supply of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers (including pure nitrogen, phosphorus pentoxide and potassium oxide, the same below) will increase by an average of 3% annually and the total annual increase will reach 34 million tons. Average annual growth rate of demand expansion of 1.9%. Before 2012, in five years, the annual fertilizer demand will increase from the current 197 million tons to 216 million tons, and the annual output will increase from 206.5 million tons to 241 million tons. The total nitrogen fertilizer supply in the world is expected to increase by 23.1 million tons, the total supply of phosphate fertilizer will increase by 6.3 million tons, and potassium fertilizer will increase by 4.9 million tons.
The export of nitrogen fertilizers in Africa will increase, and it will continue to maintain its position as the main export base for phosphate fertilizers, while the demand for potash fertilizer will depend entirely on imports. Fertilizer demand in Africa will continue to be limited to 10 major countries. The major consumers include Egypt, South Africa and Morocco. North America will continue to play the role of nitrogen fertilizer core import zone, and the import of phosphate fertilizer will also continue to increase, but it is still the main source of potassium fertilizer exports.
Nitrogen fertilizer production in Asia is expected to grow at a high rate, but will continue to import phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization of China, the current growing area of ​​vegetables and fruits in China is equivalent to 40% of the field crops. Given that the amount of fertilizer per unit of fruit and vegetables is twice that of field crops, it is expected that 50% of the increase in fertilizer demand in China will be driven by the growing demand for fruits and vegetables.
It is expected that the global fertilizer market will oversupply in the next five years
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recently released the "current fertilizer market and outlook for 2011/12" and predicts that the global fertilizer market will oversupply in the next five years.