Automotive MEMS growth will slow down next year in 2011

According to IHS iSuppli's automotive MEMS research, affected by the earthquake in Japan earlier this year, the growth rate of the MEMS automotive sensor market in 2011 will be significantly lower than last year's strong level, but will soon accelerate again.

This year, global sales of the automotive sensor market are expected to be 1.99 billion U.S. dollars, which is only 4% higher than the 1.91 billion U.S. dollars in 2010. Last year, sales rose 28% from 2009. In 2011, the growth rate of automotive MEMS sensor shipments will also be relatively sluggish, and is expected to grow by only 9% to 750.7 million units, up from 36% last year.

The decline in the automotive MEMS market is due to the fact that the earthquake in Japan not only affected Japan's manufacturing industry, but also impacted global production. Japan is the main producer of automotive MEMS. Automotive sensors are used to improve vehicle performance and comfort while improving safety, and are widely used in airbags, tire pressure monitoring and automotive stability control.

The March earthquake in Japan is expected to reduce the production of the automobile manufacturing supply chain by about 2 million vehicles. Although the auto production will be partially recovered in 2011, if the global average uses 10 MEMS sensors per vehicle, the loss of vehicle production may result in a reduction of about 20 million sensor shipments this year. The earthquake also impacted the frontline manufacturers such as Denso. Denso's sales in the second quarter decreased by 22% over the same period of last year.

The situation will improve in 2012. Next year, automotive MEMS sales will accelerate its growth, rising by 16% to 2.31 billion U.S. dollars. In 2015, it will reach 2.93 billion U.S. dollars, as shown in Figure 2. In the next few years, automobile production will be restored, and the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe and China will also comprehensively introduce automobile safety regulations to help the sensor industry create more profits.

In particular, the safety regulations that China will enter into force in 2012 stipulate that the 2015 compliance rate must reach a very high level. Given the huge size of the Chinese market, the scale of such deployment will have a major impact on the sales of pressure sensors for the direct tire pressure monitoring system (TPMS). IHS iSuppli's research shows that this provision will be implemented gradually from the middle of 2012, beginning with cars with a displacement of more than 1.6 litres and covering all engine displacements by July 2015.

Boosted by regulations issued around the world, TPMS sensor shipments are expected to quadruple in 2015-2010, and shipments in 2015 will grow from 62 million in 2010 to 300 million. By 2015, 73% of cars will use this sensor. However, in order to stand firm in this market, pressure sensor suppliers will have to withstand the rigorous test of a price drop of up to 8% per year.

The ESC system and airbags will be the big winners in various applications; Bosch and Denso have the highest sales in 2010; the largest application area of ​​automotive MEMS is the electronic stability control (ESC), with sales of nearly US$500 million; airbag sales It was 463 million U.S. dollars; manifold air pressure was well below 175 million U.S. dollars. The ESC system improves vehicle safety by detecting and reducing braking, involving up to four MEMS sensors, including higher-priced gyroscopes and high-performance accelerometers.

The two-in-one sensor emerged in 2010. It includes a yaw rate gyroscope and a dual-axis accelerometer in one package, sharing the ESC system ASIC. So far only Bosch and VTI have provided such 2-in-1 sensors, but it is expected that other manufacturers will provide such solutions in the future.

Among various manufacturers in the automotive MEMS industry, Bosch ranked first, with sales growth of 47% in 2010, reaching US$523 million. Denso ranked second, but the company's sales increased only 14% to 242 million US dollars. Firms with faster growth in sales grew by more than 30%: Freescale, Panasonic and Sensata.

Panasonic is the best example of a successful transition. The company originally produced mass-market gyroscopes for cameras, but now it produces safety-critical products for the ESC systems of the first-tier manufacturers. Some other manufacturers have also entered the ESC market, including SensorDynamics. SensorDynamics was recently acquired by Maxim and this year it has begun selling gyroscopes for ESC systems.

Dr. Richard Dixon and Jérémie Bouchaud are senior analysts and principal analysts of MEMS and sensors at IHS.