Analysis of Development Situation and Investment Opportunity of China's Mold Industry in 2012

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month and 2.9 percentage points lower than the historical average. Among them, the new orders index and the new export orders index have fallen by a large margin, with a drop of more than 2 percentage points, all falling back to less than 50%, showing a recessionary characteristic. This makes it doubtful whether the economy will continue to grow rapidly next year, especially next year.

The sharp drop in the HSBC PMI shows that the manufacturing sector contracted in November, especially the operating conditions of small and medium-sized manufacturing companies. The growth of industrial production is likely to slow further and the market has entered a stage of “low-speed growth”. China’s economic development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. Maintaining the sustained, steady and rapid development of the industrial economy has many favorable conditions and faces many difficulties and problems. Comprehensive analysis shows that the industrial growth rate in the next year should continue to have a moderate correction, but overall it will still operate in a stable and relatively fast growth range. “Stable growth, structural adjustment, transfer mode, and convergence” will become the industrial economy in 2012. The main theme of the operation will continue to improve industrial development and operation quality. It is tentatively expected that in 2012, the growth rate of China's industrial enterprises above designated size will be 1-2 percentage points lower than in 2011.

Development situation: average annual growth rate of 33.5%

Mold Industry Core Competence Roadmap Mold refers to various models and tools used in industrial production to produce products through injection molding, die casting, or forging. The mold is the basic process equipment for industrial production and is called "the mother of industry". There is a huge demand in the mold market. Most of the standardized products require molds for molding. More than 75% of rough-machining industrial product parts and more than 50% of the finished parts need to be molded by molds. Most of the plastic products are also molded by molds. The molds are widely used in many industries such as automobiles, home appliances, electronics, and building materials, and their downstream demand is huge. The rapid development of the downstream industry has brought about huge demand for the mold industry, and the mold will become consumer goods as the downstream competition becomes fierce. With the rapid development of industries such as automobiles, home appliances and electronics, the demand for molds has rapidly increased; while the competition in the downstream industry has become fiercer, the demand for upgrading new products will accelerate, the time for use of individual molds will be shortened, and the market size of the mold industry will be reduced. Will continue to expand. The overall growth rate of China's mold industry is much higher than the growth rate of GDP. The average annual growth rate of 33.5% has increased by 10 times in 8 years.

Since 2000, thanks to the rapid development of the downstream automotive, electronics, and plastics industries, China's mold industry has made considerable progress. The industry income of the mold industry grew rapidly from 14 billion yuan in 2003 to 140 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 10 times in 8 years, and the average annual growth rate was above 28%. This shows that the development momentum of China's mold industry is very strong. From January to October 2011, China's mold production was 8,172,664 sets. Among them, in October 2011, China produced 1.03 million sets of molds, an increase of 44.24% year-on-year.

According to the standards of the World Bank, China has entered middle and upper income countries in 2011, and China’s industrial competitiveness ranks first in the world. However, the report also shows that since 2011, China's industrial competitiveness has further weakened, and the competitiveness structure has not been significantly optimized. For the current difficulties encountered by China's mold manufacturing industry, China Machine ToolNet | Outrigger believes that it is caused by four factors: the first is the pressure of resources and environment; the mold manufacturing industry needs to consume more steel resources; the second is rising costs, raw materials Prices, labor costs, and costs arising from various controls are on the rise. Third, industrial profits are at a disadvantage. Whether it is sales profit margins or net asset profit margins, compared with other industries, the mold manufacturing industry's earnings are significantly lower. Therefore, it has led to a vicious cycle of “going to manufacturing” or “de-industrialization,” which is unfavorable for China to leapfrog the “middle income trap”. Fourth, the stagnation of global economic growth will have a certain impact on China’s mold exports, especially the weak economic growth of the United States. The economic growth rate caused by debt problems in Europe is declining. Trade protectionism against Chinese products will be manifested in various ways, and global trade volume will decline, thus adversely affecting the international competitiveness of China's mold industry.

At present, the biggest problem faced by manufacturing companies is that the shortage of funds is becoming increasingly prominent and the market uncertainty is increasing. However, the overall fundamentals of China’s economic development are still good. As domestic investment growth remains at a relatively high level, consumption growth remains stable. With the increase, with the fall in price levels, the space for monetary policy relaxation has been significantly increased. It will be the top priority for macroeconomic policies in 2012, and it is expected that the future mold growth rate will be stable and there will be no major decline. The key to surpassing the "middle income trap" is to achieve a major transformation from an export-oriented strategy to an import substitution strategy. For the mold industry, first of all, it is necessary to improve the policies and measures for fiscal, financial, and financial credit support for technological transformation, and support small and micro mold enterprises that are in line with industrial policies, have orders, and have good returns. While expanding domestic demand, stabilizing and expanding the balanced development of foreign demand, Strengthen technological transformation as an important measure to adjust the structure and transfer methods, vigorously improve the competitiveness of precision mold technology, and promote the import substitution of the mold industry.

In the international market, due to the continuous increase in labor costs in industrialized countries, they are forced to transfer molds to developing countries, especially developing countries like China, which have a relatively good technological foundation, in order to reduce production costs. More and more foreign-funded enterprises see the ever-growing Chinese mold market entering the Chinese mold market one after another. Many internationally-known automobile mold companies and injection mold enterprises have also entered China one after another, and the speed of entry into the Chinese market is very rapid. It is also very fast. The trend of mold consumerization will drive the development of the entire mold industry, and mold steel, mold bases, and mold production in the industry chain will all benefit. There will be three important changes in the mold industry: First, the market size of the entire mold industry will increase, the demand for upstream mold steel will accelerate; Second, the coverage of mold standard parts will increase, and the demand for mold products will increase. The third mold development ability, mold delivery companies with short delivery times will gain competitive advantage.

Secondly, it is necessary to steadily push forward the merger and reorganization of large-scale enterprise groups in the mold industry and industrial chain integration work, and continue to improve the backward production capacity withdrawal mechanism. Further promote industrial transfer, industrial restructuring and transformation and upgrading. Continue to vigorously promote energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control, guide key energy-consuming enterprises to carry out benchmarking activities, promote industrial demand management, and develop circular economy.

The third is to promote the deep integration of informatization and industrialization. The integration of “two industries” is an effective way to promote the transformation and upgrading of the mold industry. It is necessary to increase the support for the integration of the "two industries" of mold enterprises in the development of common technology, the construction of public service platforms and pilot demonstration projects, and support and guide mold enterprises in strengthening information infrastructure and improving information management capabilities and application levels. We will vigorously promote the application of industrial enterprise informationization and industrialization assessment standards to accelerate the upgrading of enterprise information. Continuously deepen the application of information technology in mold R&D and design, manufacturing process, marketing management, logistics distribution, quality varieties, energy saving, emission reduction and pollution control, safety production, and equipment technology, etc., to enhance the added value and competitiveness of molds.

“In China's mold industry, the number of private enterprises occupies a large proportion, and to expand the scale of production, it is necessary to build a global network, avoid weaknesses, and alliance with suppliers, distributors, and peers. This is a kind of future development. The trend has been confirmed during the rapid development of the current industrial cluster (Mould Industry Park)."

Fourthly, it is necessary to encourage and support mold enterprises to become the main body of R&D investment, the main body of technological innovation and the main body of application of innovation results. The participation of mold technology elements in distribution is an important part of the reform of the property rights system of high-tech enterprises; perfect production, research, research, and use are closely linked. The channels and mechanisms for cooperation shall foster and support competitive independent brands and realize the transition from “Made in China” to “Created in China” as soon as possible. We must innovate the organizational model and management model to form a mold industry alliance and a mold technology alliance. It is necessary to attach great importance to the development of the physical economic clusters of molds and molds. The mold manufacturing industry must form regional specialized production bases in certain regions to produce high-value-added molds and export molds. This requires mold steels to be developed from low-grade products to high-grade products. And develop some unique products.

In the domestic market, the industries with strong demand for molds include aerospace, defense industry, rail locomotives, construction machinery and other industries, especially the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail project with a total investment of 220 billion yuan, and large-scale aircraft projects with an investment scale of more than 30 billion yuan. , will bring new challenges and opportunities to the mold industry. The development of our country's mold industry must rely on the national key construction projects and closely cooperate with the key projects of the nine major industries of steel, automobiles, petrochemicals, ships, light industry, textiles, non-ferrous metals, electronic information, and national defense and military, and vigorously develop precision molds and large-scale coverage. Molds to improve the manufacturing capability of high-grade mold standard parts; to achieve domestic and high-quality mold steel, improve the mold material supply system, provide a more comprehensive variety of specifications and grades of materials, and greatly reduce the preparation company's material preparation cycle; improve New materials for molds, new plastic molding processes and R&D capabilities for new high-strength, high-tenacity, high-temperature plastic products; raise the overall level of enterprise information management and mold integration manufacturing; and at the same time accelerate corporate mergers and reorganizations and product upgrading, and reduce With the distance between developed countries, the mold industry in China continues to develop healthily.

In the key functional items of major national special projects, the mold special project reflects the important position of the mold industry in the manufacturing industry. Therefore, we must focus on the molding process and mold processing technology of high-strength, high-tenacity, and high-wear-resistant plastic products that are compatible with large aircraft projects, high-speed railways, and urban rail transit projects.

At present, the mold for automobile service accounts for about one-third of the total mold production in China. In the more developed countries in the automotive industry, molds for automobiles often account for over 40% of all molds. With the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the car models are continuously updated, the car develops to high speed, comfort, and stylization, and the body structure will become increasingly complex, requiring the development of molds to be large, complicated, and high-precision. The demand for green energy for car energy is also getting higher and higher. The car's own weight drops by 10%, which can save 6% to 8% of fuel. Plastic substitute steel is the only way to make cars lighter. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously develop energy-saving and consumption-reducing, automotive-supplied parts manufacturing processes and mold manufacturing technologies.

Experts had predicted that in 2012, 2 million tons of plastic products will be supplied with vehicles and boats; 5 million tons of synthetic resins will be required for various plastic components, insulation materials, and packaging materials for home appliances; and building materials for real estate development will be used for PVC. The demand for plastics such as PE, PP, PS, PC, and PUR will reach 7 million tons. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the research of injection molding technology of wood-plastic composites, injection molding technology of plastic-metal composites and research of plastic special-shaped high-speed extrusion die technology.

With the rapid development of global networking and communication technologies, the communication speed has increased, and the miniaturization and weight reduction of mobile phones and laptops have resulted in increasingly higher requirements for connector plug-in packaging technology, ultra-thin forming technology, forming technology for light-guiding plastics, and die precision. . Therefore, ultra-thin forming, ultra-precision forming processes and high-precision mold manufacturing techniques must be studied.

The investment in the mold industry focuses on the three types of molds in the industry chain. The company recommends that investors pay attention to the three types of companies in the industry chain: China has a huge gap in supply and demand for mold steel, and domestic mold steel companies with advanced technology levels will benefit from growth in demand and import substitution; The industry will benefit from the increase in the coverage of mold production standard parts; companies combining mold and parts production will be able to enjoy greater expansion of downstream demand.

Main line 1: The gap between supply and demand for mold steel is large, and companies with advanced technologies and rapid expansion are selected. China is the country with the largest consumption of global mold steel. The market is very broad, and the outlook for future industry development is optimistic. However, at this stage, the supply and demand gap of China's die steel is huge, and the foreign dependence is as high as 46%. A large number of high-quality die steels need to be imported from Japan, Germany, and Sweden. The reason is that the tool steel only accounts for 20% of the cost of the mold, and the mold processing cost is very expensive (more than 60% of the total cost). If the inferior mold steel is selected, the life and molding quality of the mold will be greatly affected. influences. For example, the domestic die casting H13 steel die has a life of 30,000-50,000, while the imported high-quality H13 steel die casting die can reach 200,000 lives, and the corresponding final product output can be increased by 4 to 6 times. The gap in mold life makes domestic mold manufacturers prefer to purchase high-quality mold steel from foreign countries rather than using domestic materials.

However, domestically produced die steel has the advantage that foreign steel plants can't match. The first is the advantage of delivery time. The second is the cost advantage. For products of the same specifications, domestic mold steel prices are only 1/5 to 1/3 of that of foreign countries. In recent years, China's mold steel production process and technology have made great progress, so we believe that with the further development of technology, domestic steel products can replace imported molds. The proposal focuses on making breakthroughs in technology, and there will be companies with major scale expansion in the near future.

Main line 2: Mold bases are standardized products and companies with scale advantages are selected. At present, the use of mold standard parts in China is still lagging far behind the developed countries. The shortening of the mold production cycle requires increasing the coverage of mold standard parts. As the competition in the mold industry intensifies, the use of mold frames will become more and more extensive, and the mold life cycle will become shorter, and the demand for mold frames will increase.

Since the formwork is a standardized product, it is recommended that companies with scale advantages be concerned. In addition, due to the typical regional agglomeration of mold production, the location of the company's factory building should be close to the downstream users, and it is optimistic about the companies with good location and new plant production in the future.

Main line 3: Magnification effect of mold output value is significant, focusing on integrated production of mold and parts production. The mold industry generally adopts a single-piece customization model, which can be customized according to samples or design drawings provided by customers. Therefore, it has the characteristics of single-piece and multi-batch. However, due to the significant production value amplification effect of the mold production, the market scale of the downstream parts of the mold is far greater than the value of the mold itself. As for the production of parts, the core part is the mold, so the mold manufacturers have the inherent potential to expand downstream. The ideal situation is to be able to open up the production of molds and downstream components, so that both the ability to fully use the mold design and the larger downstream market can be enjoyed.

The tightening of risk factors was stricter than expected, resulting in a significant slowdown in the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the manufacturing industry. Due to the earthquake in Japan, the supply of spare parts for electronics and automotive industries was insufficient, resulting in a slowdown in the industry and cooling demand for new molds.

To seize nine major market segments for the seven major emerging industries in terms of development opportunities. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the development of national strategic emerging industries, a new generation of information technology, biotechnology, energy conservation and environmental protection, and high-end equipment manufacturing are among the seven strategic emerging industries. The industry will become a pillar industry, and the new energy, new materials, and new energy automotive industries will become the leading industries. The seven industry chains will push China into a new industry cycle in the next decade.

The decrease in economic and investment growth means that the growth rate of capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries, which are more relevant to fixed-asset investment, will slow down, while the growth of technology-intensive high-end equipment manufacturing will accelerate. Starting from the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s high-end equipment import substitution is expected to enter a rapid phase. High-tech high-end equipment at this stage includes construction machinery, heavy mining machinery, railway equipment, new energy equipment, high-end CNC machine tools, and petrochemicals. Mechanical, mechanical basic parts, mold manufacturing and other sub-sectors. The mold manufacturing industry, as an important component of the equipment manufacturing industry, plays a very important role in the national economic construction and is responsible for providing auxiliary machinery for the chemical, power, metallurgy, marine, military, light industry, textile, and pharmaceutical industries. Its technical level determines the operating level of production facilities in the chemical, power, metallurgy, marine, military, light industry, textile, and pharmaceutical industries. It can be seen that the dies are in the upstream industrial structure and rapid import substitution upgrades will generate more investment opportunities. As a basic mechanical component, the molds produce a wide range of parts and specifications and are widely used in aerospace, weaponry, machinery manufacturing, transportation, construction engineering, metallurgy and mining, petrochemicals, electric energy, electronic communications, and light industry. Supporting textile and other equipment is an indispensable part of the equipment manufacturing industry. It directly determines the performance, level, quality and reliability of major equipment and main products, and is a vital part of the revitalization of equipment manufacturing. The downstream industries of the mold are mainly concentrated in the productive demand of the manufacturing industry, and the direct correlation with the investment in fixed assets is relatively small. While investment in fixed assets with infrastructure and real estate as the main content will be decelerated in the future, and fixed assets investment in the manufacturing industry is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate, the mold market will have more robust downstream demand.

According to China's GDP growth rate and scale calculation in recent years, it is estimated that by 2015, the value of strategic emerging industries will increase by about 4.3 trillion yuan, and by 2020 will reach 11.4 trillion yuan. To achieve the development goals proposed by the State Council, it is expected that the strategic emerging industries will achieve an average annual growth rate of 24.1% from 2011 to 2015 and an average annual growth rate of 21.3% from 2016 to 2020. According to the driving effect conversion of the mold industry 1:100, the seven strategic emerging industries will generate 100 billion yuan mold market demand, which will undoubtedly become the biggest growth point of China's mold industry in the next few years. In 2012, as the key year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, molds Industry investment must seize development opportunities. At present, local governments and industrial real estate developers are busy making plans for the mold industry park, enclosure, fundraising and investment promotion. On the one hand, from the central to the local, we can keep up with the world trend and make rapid responses. This shows that China's molds have had the ability to grasp and respond to development opportunities during the major transition period of the world economy.